Birthgap

On Unplanned Childlessness

• My teenage daughter mentioned population collapse in science class and everyone laughed at her. Even the teacher. They’re still teaching overpopulation. - scarlett9050

• A great shoutout to the woke Cambridge students. Without their boycott and protests, i would have never heard of this great film. Classic example of the Streisand effect. - 13thcentury

The Family is the irreducible building block.

Without Children there is no Family; there are just boyfriends and girlfriends with property rights. And then there is nothing.

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We are having fewer and fewer children.

Stephen Shaw has produced an excellent 3-part documentary, Birthgap, that looks at what has been happening and tries to understand it.

The full documentary is here. You need to purchase parts 2 and 3.

Birthgap∙org

But Part 1 is free on YouTube.

One of the standout points that the documentary makes, in Part 1, is:

However, the documentary finds that the decline is almost entirely caused by a spike in the rate of childlessness, not shrinking family sizes. In countries with ultra-low fertility, 1/3 or more remain childless, but family sizes for those who do have kids remain around 2-3 on average.

Fewer women are having ANY children, but once they have one, the shape of family sizes has not really changed. We have the same proportion of 3 child families, for example, as we had before this downward spiral started.

You need to have at least ONE to break the cycle, to break the “spell”.

As you will read shortly, the documentary covers plenty of possible causes, but it doesn’t touch on the subject of The Poisoning (water, food, drugs, vaccines etc.). That’s OK, nothing is perfect.

Because of the recent Hysterectomy Series I cannot help but think that The Poisoning, via its assault on the endocrine system, is also damaging the maternal instinct.

I am not for one second trying to “solve” the whole phenomenon with this one explanation, but there is either a mothering instinct or there isn’t, and its either connected to the female hormone system, or it isn’t.

So, if there is, and it is, then…how are we messing with the mothering and nesting instinct?

Female hormones are governed by the endocrine system, which is a network of glands and organs that produce, store, and release hormones. Hormones are chemical messengers that travel through the bloodstream to tissues or organs, affecting many different processes, including growth and development, metabolism, sexual function, reproduction, and mood.

Biochemistry:

The biochemistry behind the maternal and nesting instinct is complex and involves several hormones and neurotransmitters. Key hormones include:

1.      Oxytocin: Often referred to as the "love hormone," it plays a significant role in bonding. Oxytocin levels increase during pregnancy and peak at the time of childbirth, facilitating mother-infant bonding and stimulating milk production. It also enhances the emotional bond and increases trust and empathy towards others.

2.      Estrogen and Progesterone: These sex hormones rise significantly during pregnancy, preparing the body for childbirth and motherhood. They have been implicated in enhancing maternal behaviour, preparing the body for breastfeeding, and regulating mood and emotional responses.

3.      Prolactin: Primarily known for its role in lactation, prolactin also influences maternal behaviors by promoting nurturing and protective actions.

4.      Endorphins: These are natural pain relievers and mood enhancers. During childbirth, endorphin levels increase, which can help in pain management and promote positive feelings towards the baby.

Biophysiology:

The biophysiology of the maternal and nesting instinct involves the brain and various neurological pathways. Key areas include:

1.      The Limbic System: This brain region is crucial for emotion and memory. It plays a pivotal role in forming the mother-infant bond, with structures like the amygdala and hippocampus being integral for emotional responses and memory formation associated with maternal behaviors.

2.      Prefrontal Cortex: This part of the brain is involved in decision-making, social behavior, and personality expression. It helps in processing and responding to the needs of the baby, planning, and regulating emotions related to motherhood.

3.      The Hypothalamus and Pituitary Gland: These structures are central to the regulation of hormones related to childbirth and breastfeeding, such as oxytocin and prolactin. They also help regulate the stress response, which can affect maternal behavior and mood.

The urge to "nest" and prepare for the arrival of a baby involves both biological and psychological components. Biologically, the nesting instinct can be attributed to changes in hormone levels, particularly increases in estrogen and progesterone, which can influence energy levels and focus towards preparing the home for the new arrival. Psychologically, nesting is part of the anticipatory adaptation to motherhood, as the expectant mother seeks to create a safe, welcoming environment for her child.

These biological and physiological processes are inherently designed to ensure the survival and care of the offspring, highlighting the deep-rooted connection between maternal instincts and the complex interplay of hormones and brain functions.

Which then brings us to the question of just how might we be messing with all this?

By accident and by purpose.

This is clearly NOT an exhaustive list. If you know of others, please share in the comments.

Environmental pollutants can have significant impacts on the female endocrine system, altering or damaging its normal workings. These substances, often referred to as endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs), can mimic, block, or otherwise interfere with the body's hormones. Here are some of the most common environmental pollutants that affect the female endocrine system:

1. Bisphenol A (BPA)

·         Sources: Found in polycarbonate plastics and epoxy resins, which are used in a wide variety of products including food and drink packaging, water and infant bottles, and the lining of metal cans.

·         Effects: BPA can mimic estrogen, binding to estrogen receptors and potentially leading to reproductive disorders, fertility problems, and altered puberty onset.

2. Phthalates

·         Sources: Used to increase the flexibility of plastic in products like toys, vinyl flooring, and personal care products (e.g., nail polish, hair sprays).

·         Effects: Some phthalates have been shown to disrupt the endocrine system by interfering with the production and function of hormones in the body. They have been linked to reproductive and developmental issues, as well as impacts on thyroid function.

3. Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs)

·         Sources: Although their production has been banned in many countries since the 1970s, PCBs persist in the environment. They were used in electrical equipment, coatings, adhesives, and paint additives.

·         Effects: PCBs can interfere with thyroid hormone action, potentially leading to developmental issues. They also have been linked to reproductive issues and altered menstrual cycles.

4. Perfluoroalkyl and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS)

·         Sources: Found in non-stick cookware, water-repellent clothing, stain-resistant fabrics and carpets, cosmetics, and products that resist grease, water, and oil.

·         Effects: PFAS exposure has been associated with changes in menstrual cycles, decreased fertility, and increased risk of certain hormonal cancers.

5. Dioxins and Furans

·         Sources: Produced through combustion processes and present in the environment, accumulating in the food chain, mainly in the fatty tissue of animals.

·         Effects: They can cause reproductive and developmental problems, damage the immune system, interfere with hormones, and also linked to cancer.

6. Pesticides (e.g., DDT, Atrazine)

·         Sources: Used in agriculture to control pests and diseases in crops, some pesticides are persistent in the environment and can accumulate in the food chain.

·         Effects: Certain pesticides mimic estrogen or antagonise hormones, leading to reproductive and developmental health issues. They can also affect thyroid function and potentially lead to neurodevelopmental issues.

Also, let’s not forget two of the big ones.

Fluoride

Excessive exposure to fluoride has been linked to several health issues:

·         Thyroid Function: Fluoride's impact on the thyroid gland has been a significant concern. It has been suggested that excessive fluoride exposure can lead to hypothyroidism by inhibiting the iodine uptake necessary for normal thyroid hormone production. The thyroid is a crucial component of the endocrine system, and its disruption can lead to a wide range of systemic effects, including impacts on reproductive health.

·         Reproductive Health: Some studies suggest that high fluoride exposure might be linked to reduced fertility and alterations in reproductive hormones, though research in this area is less conclusive and often debated.

Glyphosate

Glyphosate is the active ingredient in many herbicides, most famously Roundup. It is the most widely used herbicide in agriculture and non-agricultural settings. The potential endocrine-disrupting effects of glyphosate and its formulations include:

·         Hormonal Balance: Research suggests that glyphosate can act as an endocrine disruptor, affecting the balance of estrogen, testosterone, and other hormones. However, the evidence is mixed, and the mechanisms are not fully understood.

·         Reproductive Effects: Animal studies have indicated that glyphosate exposure could affect reproductive outcomes, such as developmental issues and fertility problems. However, translating these findings to human health effects requires further investigation.

·         Thyroid Function: There is some evidence to suggest that glyphosate could affect thyroid function, potentially disrupting normal hormonal balance and metabolism. However, findings are not consistent across all studies.

I have no doubt that Gardasil into teenage girls is also a disruptor.

It seems to me that there is, at least in part, a chemical explanation (and assault) on the instinct to want to nest and become a mother.

Now, let’s circle back to Part-1 of Birthgap and look at a summary and some key takeaways.

Birthgap

Summary:

• In the 1970s, concerns about global overpopulation dominated. Population growth was predicted to strain resources and lead to catastrophes.

• However, starting in the late 1900s, many countries began experiencing significant declines in birth rates, with fertility rates dropping below the "population replacement level" of 2 children per woman.

• Fertility rates have fallen dramatically in Europe, East Asia, and elsewhere since the 1970s. Many countries now have fertility rates around 1.3-1.4 children per woman.

• This has led to rapidly aging populations in places like Japan, Italy, Germany, and South Korea. In these societies, the number of births is only about half the number of 50-year-olds nearing retirement age.

• The documentary coins the term "birthgap" to describe the gap between the shrinking number of children/future workers and the larger aging populations they will need to support. It shows maps with widening "birthgaps" across Europe and East Asia.

• Reasons suggested for the falling birth rates include: the contraceptive pill, expensive education, people prioritizing careers over family, lack of work-life balance, high costs of raising kids, people waiting longer to try for kids and ending up involuntarily childless.

• However, the documentary finds that the decline is almost entirely caused by a spike in the rate of childlessness, not shrinking family sizes. In countries with ultra-low fertility, 1/3 or more remain childless, but family sizes for those who do have kids remain around 2-3 on average.

• The documentary links the sudden spikes in childlessness to periods of economic/societal upheaval and uncertainty - the 1973 Oil Shock in Japan and Italy, 1968 student protests in Germany, 1997 Asian financial crisis in South Korea, 2007 global financial crisis in the US and elsewhere.

• It suggests an emerging global pattern: Financial/societal crises lead many young people to delay childbearing into their 30s to wait for stability. But for a huge percentage, delaying leads to unexpected childlessness as fertility windows close. This becomes a "new normal."

• The documentary emphasizes that this is mostly unintended childlessness, not childlessness by choice. It presents this as a "Birthgap Trap" that societies fall into during turbulent times.

• It warns that societies with ultra-low fertility face major challenges with not enough young people to support growing elderly populations. It closes by questioning whether governments can effectively substitute for family support systems.

Other key takeaways:

1. According to a meta-analysis by Professor Renske Keizer, among childless women, approximately 10% are "childfree" by choice, 10% are childless for medical reasons, and the remaining 80% are childless due to circumstances.

2. In Japan in 1974, only 6% of women remained childless. By 1990, this figure had reached one-in-three women, and it has remained at this level since then.

3. Childlessness in Italy increased from one-in-30 people in 1974 to one-in-five by 1977, and reached two in every five Italians by 2018.

4. South Korea has the world's largest "birthgap," with a 69% difference between the number of newborns and 50-year-olds.

5. In the United States, childlessness increased from one-in-seven people before the 2007 financial crisis to one-in-three within a few years after the crisis.

6. The average number of children per mother in the United States increased slightly from 2.5 to 2.6 between the pre-2007 period and the post-crisis years, despite the overall fertility decline.

7. Across the industrialized world in the late 1980s, the average mother had 2.4 children, and this figure remained exactly the same three decades later.

8. Japan is the world's largest importer of adult diapers, outselling baby diapers.

9. In South Korea, a new trend of raising "dog-children" has emerged, with pet owners sparing no expense on their dog's care and needs.

10. Elementary school teachers in countries with low fertility rates are noticing a decline in student enrollment, leading to concerns about job security and school closures.

11. In Japan, some companies offer "parenthood trials" that allow young people to experience parenting for a day to encourage them to have children.

12. Germany provides fully subsidized education, which is the opposite of Japan, where education is very expensive. However, both countries experience low fertility rates.

13. The percentage of Japanese mothers having one, two, three, or four or more children has remained consistent since 1974, with the only significant change being the increase in childlessness.

14. Hans Rosling's "Lego tower" demonstration shows how the world's population will continue to grow and age, even without an increase in the number of children or life expectancy, due to the "fill-up" effect of large young generations growing older.

15. Jody Day, a childless woman, notes that the growing number of childless women often feel a sense of grief and distress, which is not always recognized or understood by medical professionals or society at large.

Peterson did an excellent interview with Stephen Shaw about Birthgap, about a year ago.

The Epidemic That Dare Not Speak Its Name | Stephen J Shaw | EP 338

Here are some key Q&As based on the content of their exchange.

1. What is Stephen J. Shaw's professional background, and how did it lead him to become interested in the issue of falling birth rates?

Stephen J. Shaw has been involved in data analytics and data science for the past 20 years. He co-founded a data analytics company called Automatrix Analytics LLC, where he has been working with academics and PhDs to develop forecasting models for industries, mainly in the automotive sector. In 2015, while pursuing further education at the Harvard Extension School, Stephen was presented with data on falling birth rates that he found deeply concerning. As a father of three, he felt a sense of responsibility to understand and raise awareness about this issue, which led him to start working on the "Birth Gap" documentary.

2. Why does Stephen believe that population collapse, rather than overpopulation, will be the biggest problem the world faces in 20 years?

Stephen believes that the conventional wisdom about overpopulation is outdated and that the world is actually facing a looming population collapse. He argues that falling birth rates, if left unchecked, will lead to a shrinking labor force, unsustainable pension systems, and a healthcare system that will be unable to cope with the growing elderly population. This demographic shift will place immense strain on economies and social structures worldwide.

3. What was the initial impetus for Stephen to start working on the "Birth Gap" documentary?

While pursuing further education at the Harvard Extension School in 2015, Stephen was presented with data on falling birth rates that he found alarming. As a data scientist involved in forecasting, he realized that this trend would have profound implications not just for the automotive industry, but for society as a whole. As a father of three teenage children at the time, he felt a sense of failure that he hadn't been preparing them for the world they were about to enter. This realization led him to start investigating the issue more deeply and ultimately inspired him to create the "Birth Gap" documentary.

4. How did Stephen's experience living in the suburbs of Detroit influence his perspective on the consequences of demographic shifts?

Stephen's experience living in the suburbs of Detroit provided him with a stark example of the consequences of demographic decline. He witnessed firsthand the effects of population loss on the city, with entire streets lined with decaying, vacant houses. This experience, combined with his research into falling birth rates worldwide, led him to draw parallels between Detroit's situation and the potential future of other cities and countries facing population decline.

5. What is the "birth gap" that Stephen refers to, and why is it a critical metric for understanding population dynamics?

The "birth gap" refers to the growing disparity between the number of elderly people in a society and the number of births. Stephen argues that this gap is a critical metric for understanding population dynamics because it highlights the unsustainable nature of current demographic trends. As birth rates continue to fall below replacement levels, the ratio of elderly people to working-age adults will increase, placing immense strain on social support systems and economies.

6. According to the discussion, what is "unplanned childlessness," and how prevalent is it in developed countries?

"Unplanned childlessness" refers to the phenomenon of people who want to have children but end up not having them due to various factors, such as delaying parenthood, not finding a suitable partner, or facing fertility issues. According to the discussion, unplanned childlessness is becoming increasingly prevalent in developed countries, with rates as high as 30-40% in some nations. This is in stark contrast to the estimated 5% of people who consciously choose not to have children.

7. What are some of the most common reasons that people who want children end up involuntarily childless?

The most common reasons for involuntary childlessness include: a) Delaying parenthood due to education, career, or financial concerns b) Not finding a suitable partner or experiencing relationship instability c) Fertility issues, which become more common as people age d) Lack of awareness about the biological clock and the limited fertility window, especially for women e) Cultural and societal factors that prioritize individual freedom and career advancement over family formation

8. Why does Jordan Peterson believe that the psychological consequences of involuntary childlessness are particularly severe for women?

Jordan Peterson argues that the psychological consequences of involuntary childlessness are particularly severe for women because of the limited fertility window they face. Women who delay childbearing and then find themselves unable to conceive often experience profound grief and a sense of loss. This is compounded by the fact that, by the time many women realize they want children, their pool of potential partners may have shrunk considerably, as men often prefer younger women who have more fertile years ahead of them.

9. How does hypergamy influence women's mate selection preferences, and what implications does this have for marriage and family formation?

Hypergamy refers to the tendency of women to prefer partners who are of equal or higher social status, education, and income compared to themselves. This preference can make it challenging for highly educated and successful women to find suitable partners, as they may perceive a smaller pool of "eligible" men. Consequently, these women may remain single or delay marriage and childbearing, which can contribute to lower birth rates and increased involuntary childlessness.

10. What are some of the long-term societal and economic consequences of below-replacement fertility rates and an aging population?

The long-term consequences of below-replacement fertility rates and an aging population include: a) Shrinking labor force, leading to reduced economic growth and productivity b) Increased strain on pension systems and social support programs, as fewer working-age adults must support a growing elderly population c) Potential collapse of real estate markets, as a declining population leads to reduced demand for housing d) Increased social isolation and loneliness among the elderly, as family support systems break down e) Challenges in providing adequate healthcare and elder care services to a rapidly aging population

11. How have changes in women's education and labor force participation affected birth rates and the average age of first childbirth?

As women have gained greater access to education and career opportunities, birth rates have declined, and the average age of first childbirth has increased. Women are increasingly prioritizing their education and professional development, which can lead to delayed marriage and childbearing. This delay can reduce the number of children a woman ultimately has, as fertility declines with age. Additionally, the pursuit of education and career goals can create a sense of conflict between personal ambition and the desire to start a family, contributing to lower birth rates.

12. According to Stephen and Jordan, why have financial incentives and policies like subsidized childcare largely failed to boost birth rates in developed countries?

Stephen and Jordan argue that financial incentives and policies like subsidized childcare have largely failed to boost birth rates because they do not address the underlying cultural and psychological factors that influence people's decisions about having children. They suggest that the primary issue is not a lack of financial support or access to childcare, but rather a fundamental shift in priorities and values that has led people to delay or forgo parenthood. Therefore, policies that focus solely on economic incentives are unlikely to reverse the trend of falling birth rates.

13. What cultural and technological factors have contributed to the sharp decline in birth rates in countries like Japan, Germany, and Italy since the 1970s?

Several cultural and technological factors have contributed to the decline in birth rates in developed countries since the 1970s, including: a) Increased access to education and career opportunities for women, leading to delayed marriage and childbearing b) Widespread availability of birth control and family planning services c) Changing social norms and values that prioritize individual freedom and self-fulfillment over traditional family roles d) Economic uncertainty and rising costs associated with raising children e) Increased life expectancy and the perception that there is more time to start a family later in life

14. How does Stephen explain the "baby shock" phenomenon, where birth rates suddenly plummeted in several developed countries within the span of just a few years?

Stephen describes the "baby shock" as a sharp increase in childlessness that occurred in countries like Japan, Germany, and Italy in the early 1970s. Within a span of just four years, the percentage of childless women in these countries rose dramatically, from around 3% to 15-30%. This sudden shift was not accompanied by a change in family structure (i.e., the number of children born to mothers who did have children). Stephen argues that this "baby shock" marked the beginning of a trend toward increasing involuntary childlessness in developed countries.

15. What are some of the challenges that rapidly aging societies like Japan are already facing, particularly with regard to the well-being of the elderly?

Rapidly aging societies like Japan are facing numerous challenges related to the well-being of their elderly populations, including: a) Increased social isolation and loneliness, as many elderly individuals live alone without family support b) Strain on healthcare systems and elder care services, as the number of elderly people requiring care grows while the working-age population shrinks c) Pension and social security systems under pressure, as fewer workers are available to support a growing number of retirees d) Potential for neglect and mistreatment of the elderly, especially those without family advocates e) Mental health issues and even increased suicide rates among the elderly, who may feel that they have nothing to live for and no one to care for them

16. How have environmentalist thinkers like Paul Ehrlich shaped public attitudes about population growth and the desirability of lower birth rates?

Environmentalist thinkers like Paul Ehrlich, author of "The Population Bomb," have played a significant role in shaping public attitudes about population growth and the desirability of lower birth rates. Ehrlich and others have argued that unchecked population growth will lead to environmental catastrophe, resource depletion, and widespread poverty. These ideas have influenced public policy and popular opinion, leading some to view lower birth rates as a positive development for the planet. However, Stephen and Jordan argue that these views are misguided and that the world is actually facing a population collapse rather than overpopulation.

17. Why does Jordan Peterson argue that the "population bomb" and "yeast in a petri dish" models of human population dynamics are flawed and misleading?

Jordan Peterson argues that the "population bomb" and "yeast in a petri dish" models of human population dynamics are flawed because they fail to account for human ingenuity, adaptability, and problem-solving abilities. He suggests that these models assume a static, zero-sum relationship between population growth and resource availability, when in reality, humans have consistently found ways to increase productivity, efficiency, and resource abundance. Peterson believes that the wealth of the planet is primarily dependent on factors like psychological health, good governance, and innovation, rather than raw population numbers.

18. What does Jordan believe is the real reason that societies are failing to encourage family formation and reproduction, particularly among young men?

Jordan Peterson believes that societies are failing to encourage family formation and reproduction, particularly among young men, due to a cultural narrative that demonizes masculinity and portrays male ambition and desire as inherently problematic. He argues that young men are being demoralized and made to feel guilty for their natural inclinations toward achievement, competition, and sexual pursuit. This narrative, he suggests, is contributing to a generation of young men who are unmotivated, aimless, and reluctant to take on the responsibilities of marriage and fatherhood.

19. How have countries like Hungary attempted to use policy levers to promote marriage, childbearing, and traditional family values, and have these efforts been successful?

Hungary has implemented a range of policies aimed at promoting marriage, childbearing, and traditional family values, including:

a) Generous tax breaks for mothers, with women who have four or more children being exempt from income tax for life

b) Subsidies and grants for home purchases and renovations for families with multiple children

c) Increased spending on childcare facilities and family support programs

d) Constitutional protections for the institution of marriage as a union between a man and a woman

While these policies have not yet resulted in a significant increase in birth rates, they have contributed to a stabilization of the fertility rate and a slight uptick in marriages and births. Hungary has also seen a reduction in abortions and divorces since implementing these measures.

20. What role could a cultural shift toward lifelong education and career flexibility play in enabling people to balance family formation with other life goals?

A cultural shift toward lifelong education and career flexibility could play a significant role in enabling people to balance family formation with other life goals. By recognizing that education and career development need not be confined to a narrow window in one's early adulthood, individuals could feel more empowered to prioritize family formation earlier in life, knowing that they will have opportunities to continue learning and advancing their careers later on. This shift could also help alleviate the perceived conflict between personal ambition and the desire to have children, as people would no longer feel that they have to choose one path at the expense of the other.

21. What are some of the key cultural and policy changes that Stephen and Jordan believe will be necessary to address the problem of involuntary childlessness and below-replacement fertility rates?

Some of the key cultural and policy changes that Stephen and Jordan believe will be necessary to address the problem of involuntary childlessness and below-replacement fertility rates include:

a) Promoting a cultural narrative that values parenthood, family formation, and the unique role of motherhood in society

b) Encouraging a more balanced and nuanced view of masculinity that recognizes the importance of male ambition, responsibility, and fatherhood

c) Implementing policies that provide financial and social support for families, such as tax incentives, child benefits, and flexible work arrangements

d) Investing in education and public awareness campaigns to help people understand the realities of the biological clock and the potential consequences of delaying parenthood

e) Fostering a culture of lifelong learning and career flexibility that allows people to pursue both family and professional goals throughout their lives

f) Addressing the economic and social factors that contribute to delayed marriage and childbearing, such as housing affordability, job security, and student debt.

By adopting a holistic approach that addresses both the cultural and policy dimensions of the issue, Stephen and Jordan believe that societies can work to reverse the trend of falling birth rates and mitigate the potential consequences of population aging and decline.

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