Pfizer vs AstraZeneca vs Moderna

Some maths to help you think about the question

There has been a question that has been bugging me for some time.

If you absolutely have to take the jab, because otherwise you and your family will starve, which one should you take. Which one has the best odds of NOT injuring you. This assumes that you cannot wait for Novavax.

I came across some posts on the Monotti+Yeadon+Cory Channel on Telegram about the Canadian data and decided to crunch the numbers to try to answer the question.

https://t.me/robinmg/11259

Canada has the same three jabs as are now available in Australia (although they go by different brand names).

The Canadian data is from the latest report dated 5 November 2021

COVID-19 vaccine safety: Weekly report on side effects following immunization - Canada.ca

Let’s start off with a look at adverse reactions by age group:

If you look at the 18 to 29 age group, for example, the official reported number of adverse reactions (AR) is 2,507.

Now anyone that has been paying attention to this space knows that there is a big difference between the “reported” ARs that make it onto the government website, and “actual” ARs in the community. The difference is the Under-Reporting Factor (URF).

The best number I have come across is 41x calculated by Steve Kirsch and his team. Until someone comes up with a better number, I’m going with it.

New VAERS analysis reveals hundreds of serious adverse events that the CDC and FDA never told us about - by Steve Kirsch

So, that means within the 18 to 29 age group, there has been 102,787 “actual” injuries.

The average split between serious and non-serious injury is 25% in the Canadian data.

So, that means, we have had 25,697 serious adverse reactions (injuries) in this age group.

Or, 1 serious injury for every 369 doses given of one of the three therapies used.

Or, 1 adverse reaction (both serious and non-serious) per 92 doses.

The last two columns on the right are our relative risk indicator and this dataset points to the 40 to 49 age group as having the worst reactions to these medicines. Interesting that this is the highest income earning group with people in the prime of their working years.

Now we look at the Canadian data broken down by each therapy.

The Canadian data breaks down reports into Serious and Non-serious groups (something the Australian government doesn’t do). The average split is 25% of reports are Serious. But this varies from one jab to the next.

For example, Pfizer has 30% of all its reports as Serious, while Moderna sits at 15% and AZ at the average of 25%.

The two far right columns show the “per dose risk”.

79 Pfizer doses produce one adverse reaction while 261 Pfizer doses produce one serious injury.

The lower the number, the worse it is.

So, it looks like Moderna has the lesser risk profile as you need 342 doses to get one serious adverse reaction (injury) and AZ is the worse needing just 97 doses per one serious injury. I have to say that this is counterintuitive at a few levels, but this is what the data is pointing to. Remember that all three are dangerous and we are splitting hairs here, but that is where we are for many people.

When I look at the data available in Australia from the TGA

COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report - 11-11-2021 | Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA)

We find the following data:

A similar conclusion emerges, that Moderna has a lower adverse reaction reporting record than the other two. It’s important to note that Moderna is still new to Australia with only 834,000 doses, and it is possible that there is a lag with adverse reaction reporting so it “looks” better for now.

But the Canadian data is much more mature on Moderna, and it points to the same conclusion.

I didn’t expect to find this conclusion seeing that Moderna has a higher dosage than the other two and Moderna has been withdrawn in several countries for under 30s:

Germany, France Restrict Moderna’s Covid Vaccine For Under-30s Over Rare Heart Risk

But the data points in a different direction, and at this moment I cannot explain why. If anyone has any light to shed on this, I would welcome it.

If you are under 30 and are uncomfortable with Moderna then the data points to Pfizer over AZ (261 vs 97 doses per 1 serious adverse reaction).

Anyway, back to the original question.

If you absolutely have to take a jab tomorrow, what are all the risk reducing strategies that you can use?

Here is my current list:

1.    Pick one of the three jabs available.

·         The data set from Canada (supported by the developing data in Australia) point to Moderna as having the lowest severe reaction reports. Remember, I am NOT a doctor, and if you have specific health conditions that may favour one jab over another, discuss that with a doctor you trust (if you can find one) and make the best decision for you. All I can do is crunch publicly available data. Whatever your doctor recommends get them to give you this type of analysis to support their recommendations.

2.    Prepare your body with a supplement protocol before and after the jab. Details here.

·         How to reduce Covid Jab Injury Risk

·         This protocol includes Aspirin to address the micro-clotting risk

3.    Aspirate the injection

·         Inadvertant intravenous injections

4.    Ice the injection area. It should help with keeping the jab in your arms muscle tissue rather than spreading to other parts of your body

Each one of these steps improves the odds in your favour a little bit. The sum of them all I think improve the odds a lot compared to the average person who is just going along unthinkingly about the real risks they are exposing themselves to.

Now, if you don’t absolutely need to take one of them tomorrow and can wait for Novavax, I still believe that is the best strategy if you absolutely have to take on of the four options.

Strategy: “I’m waiting for Novavax”