Two Control Groups: Sweden 2020 & Leicester 1885
Rhyming History: Covid and Smallpox
The video above is the first in a playlist of five short clips by Forrest Maready on smallpox. But more on smallpox later.
First let’s talk about Sweden.
Most numbers have been fudged during the last two years, because most numbers are fudgeable through statistical manipulation and linguistic engineering. But one number that is pretty resistant to both abuses is death. You are either dead or not and there isn’t much scope for language games.
The reason nobody wants to talk about Sweden is because their death numbers are an inconvenience. They resisted global pressure to lockdown and put in place what you’d call light interventions and by all accounts, life in Sweden was fairly normal for the last two years. People were asked to stay at home if sick, what you would normally do, wash hands, and basically use common sense.
They became the global control group for NPIs (Non Pharmaceutical Interventions)…primarily lockdowns.
For those of us following this from the beginning we knew that was the right approach and the data early on supported that view (the data never supported draconian intervention). But for those coming to the party late (welcome!) the data is clear, Sweden fared better than almost everybody, by doing not much at all.
As Malcolm Kendrick wrote in this wonderful essay.
OODA stands for. ‘Observe, Orient, Decide Act.’
It was developed by the Air Force Colonel, John Boyd.
What John Boyd taught was simple. If you don’t know what is going on, do not make immediate decisions. First, work out what is happening, then orientate yourself – before you decide what to do. That way you avoid most, if not all, stupid mistakes. For many years, without knowing anything of OODA my own medical strategy has tended towards ‘don’t just do something, stand there.’
What I saw happening with COVID19 is a pattern that repeats in medicine over and over again:
We have a serious illness – panic
Something must be done – grab the pitchforks, run about screaming
An influential person, or organisation, grabs the initiative – ‘‘experts’ move in.’
I/We know what to do, you must follow me/us – simple idea + soothing paternalism
Frightened people latch onto their ideas – two legs good, four legs bad
A path is chosen – along the side of a cliff
Momentum builds – the unstoppable charge of the light brigade
Those who object to the path taken are crushed – 1984
Think about the lives destroyed by your government, and for what? For an outcome worse than Sweden’s.
Sweden, which was criticised in the early stages of the pandemic for resisting a mandatory lockdown, had fewer deaths per capita than much of Europe.
In 2020 and 2021, the country had an average excess death rate of 56 per 100,000 - compared to 109 in the UK, 111 in Spain, 116 in Germany and 133 in Italy.
Sweden are no angels, there’s much that they did that I don’t agree with, including letting their population take a fraudulently tested and approved experimental genetic injection.
But on the matter of lockdowns, they were the gold standard. I went back into my mailbox and strolled down memory lane a bit. Here are some pieces from last year. We always knew that Sweden was right. This is not Monday morning quarterbacking.
From October 2021
Sweden famously framed policy in line with settled science and worldwide experience gained over a century. Florida flirted with the panic-driven mass flight from science, but only briefly. Settled science doesn’t flip overnight. It wasn’t a sudden scientific Eureka moment that resulted in lockdowns but being impressed by China’s elimination of the outbreak in Wuhan. The tactics, although unpleasant, were believed to have been effective. When copied also by Italy, the architects of lockdowns have admitted they realised that Western democracies too could do the same. Few paused to question the reliability of the data and the credibility of official claims. China’s leadership couldn’t have imagined in their wildest wet dreams how successful they would be in wrecking Western economies, social cohesion and democratic institutions and practices. After worldwide publicity of our police brutality, lecturing China on human rights evokes mocking ridicule.
Sweden went against the herd, thus they must be scorned and labeled by the arbiters of acceptable opinion.
There will never be a reckoning or acceptance of fault on the part of the media, because they are incapable of correcting their preconceptions and admitting that The Science™ was wrong. They placed their unquestioning faith in experts having a level of competence that they simply do not possess. And if there were any sanity or justice in the world, they would be held to account for their inaccuracy and the influence it’s had on COVID policy.
sweden did very little to try to stop covid. they did not lock down, they did not wear masks, they closed few businesses, they left most schools open, undistanced, in person, and unmaksed.
many have endlessly screamed that “well look at the covid deaths! it was a disaster!” but here’s the thing: it wasn’t.
sweden has one of the most aggressive covid counting methodologies in the world. they tested a lot and then called any death for any reason within 30 days of a positive covid test a covid death.
I watched Johan Giesecke two years ago on Unherd, and knew he was right. But hey, as Joel Smalley says in this recent post, what do I know, I’m not an epidemiologist.
Anders Tegnell, who took over from Giesecke and kept the faith.
Based on the mechanics of Swedish politics, the power seemed to sit with Anders and quite unbelievably, he stood firm when many in his own country and most of the rest of the world piled onto him to lockdown Sweden. He didn’t.
So, well done and thank you to Sweden for providing us with a control group that helps us shine a light on all the BS elsewhere. I’m convinced that part of the global pile on was to eradicate the control group data, thankfully it failed.
I first heard about Dissolving Illusions from Forrest Maready, who he credits with waking him up, then Margaret Anna Alice told me it was on her reading list and then Anne Gibbons created the wonderful cartoon above, and so I finally took the hint.
I’m reading Dissolving Illusions, finally on Audible, (note that the link is for the Australian Amazon) and it’s obvious to me that Sweden is today’s Leicester. What Sweden is to Covid/Lockdowns is what Leicester was to Smallpox/Vaccination. Leicester became the control group that proved the futility and dangers of smallpox vaccination. Its true history and record is buried, but for this stunning book. It’s an eye opener to the lying mythology (propaganda) that vaccination rid the world of smallpox (and other diseases).
This myth is the spiritual source of the global vaccine religion.
From Dissolving Illusions:
After the 1872 pandemic, even more people lost confidence in vaccination. They began asking the question as to whether better sanitation, hygiene, improved housing, nutrition, and isolation of cases were the best ways to deal with smallpox. These ideas, which clashed with the medical profession and governmental laws, culminated in a large demonstration in 1885 against compulsory vaccination in the small manufacturing town of Leicester, England. People had had enough. The tide was about to turn against both the medical profession and the law.
Thousands of brave people set off a historical rebellion that successfully countered a prevailing medical belief and heavy-handed government rule. The medical profession proclaimed that the Leicester residents would suffer greatly for their decision to turn their backs on vaccination. They prognosticated that this unvaccinated town with its “highly flammable material” would suffer with the “dread disease” that would spread like “wild-fire on a prairie” and decimate the population.
But the leaders of Leicester held steadfast to what they knew was right and successfully implemented their plan of sanitation, hygiene, and isolation—instead of vaccination. Their grand experiment would test the very notions of freedom of choice, self-determination, and the heart of a flawed medical belief.
The “Leicester Method” relied on quarantine of smallpox patients and thorough disinfection of their homes. They believed this was a cheap and effective means to eliminate the need for vaccination.
Even though it was clear that the Leicester Method was superior to vaccination, those who strongly endorsed vaccination believed that the immunity enjoyed by the town of Leicester was temporary and that sooner or later the town would suffer a large smallpox epidemic. They were convinced that a great tragedy was inevitable and there would be tremendous suffering for the unfortunates who followed the leaders into what they felt was a misguided adventure. They thought that the “gigantic experiment” would result in a terrible “massacre,” especially in the “unprotected” children.
Despite such prophesies of doom from the medical profession, the majority of the town’s residents remained steadfast because their experience reinforced their belief that vaccination did not control smallpox. The prophecy that the Leicester residents would eventually be plagued with disaster never did come to pass.
Leicester enjoyed better success against smallpox than other towns in England that were highly vaccinated. In the 1893 smallpox outbreak, the well-vaccinated district of Mold in Flintshire, England, had a death rate about 32 times higher than Leicester.
In the 1891–1894 smallpox outbreak described by Dr. J. W. Hodge, the highly vaccinated town of Birmingham had 63 smallpox cases and 5 deaths per 10,000 of population, compared with Leicester at 19 cases and 1 death per 10,000.
The death rate from smallpox per hundred thousand in Leicester during the 1892–1894 outbreak was 5.7. In Birmingham it was 8.0, Warrington was 10.0, and Middlesbrough was 14.4. Over the years, Leicester’s death rate from smallpox declined even more. In the 1902–1903 outbreak the death rate was 5.3, and by the 1903–1904 outbreak it was down to 1.2.
Even after 30 years of Leicester’s successful experiment, there were those who still believed disaster would eventually befall the “unprotected fools” who favored not vaccinating. (1914 New York Times)
The year 1948 brought an end to compulsory vaccination in England. By that point, the experiment in Leicester, which had been going on for more than 60 years, proved to be a great success. In 1948 Dr. Millard stated:
…in Leicester during the 62 years since infant vaccination was abandoned there have been only 53 deaths from smallpox, and in the past 40 years only two deaths. Moreover, the experience in Leicester is confirmed, and strongly confirmed, by that of the whole country.
Vaccination has been steadily declining ever since the “conscience clause” was introduced, until now nearly two-thirds of the children born are not vaccinated. Yet smallpox mortality has also declined until now quite negligible. In the fourteen years 1933-1946 there were only 28 deaths in a population of some 40 million, and among those 28 there was not a single death of an infant under 1 year of age.
In a 1980 Medical History article, Stuart M. Fraser commented on the success of the Leicester Method.
Leicester stands as an example, probably the first, where measures other than total reliance on vaccination were introduced successfully to eradicate the disease from the community… A system of immediate notification, isolation, and quarantine of contacts is one which has proved particularly effective in containing and limiting smallpox.
Forty-two years after his 1904 report, Dr. Millard, who had been the minister of health in Leicester from 1901 to 1935, explained why he believed medical experts of the day were wrong. At the core was a set of self-reinforcing beliefs in vaccination.
Looking back it is interesting to consider why medical experts were so mistaken in their prophecies of disaster to come if universal vaccination of infants was abandoned. It was probably due to the belief, then so strongly held, that it was infant vaccination, and that alone, which had brought about the great diminution of smallpox mortality that followed upon an introduction of vaccination. That this was clearly a case of cause and effect was reiterated in every textbook and in every course of lectures on public health. It was hailed, indeed, as the outstanding triumph of preventative medicine. No wonder that medical students accepted it as an incontrovertible scientific fact.
Medical authorities often used diagrams to show that vaccination enforcement was tied to a decrease in smallpox deaths. Such diagrams were designed to illustrate an apparent correlation between the rate of infant vaccination and smallpox mortality. But those diagrams were flawed. Again, Dr. Millard commented.
We now know that the apparent correlation must have been a coincidence, because smallpox mortality continued to decrease even after vaccination was decreasing also, and this had now gone on for 60 years. Obviously there must have been other causes at work which brought about the dramatic fall in smallpox mortality since the beginning of the nineteenth century, and to the extent vaccination has for so many years been receiving more credit—perhaps much more—than it was entitled to.
After the 1872 epidemic in Leicester, both vaccination rates and deaths from smallpox declined. In contrast to what vaccine enthusiasts say today, overall child mortality declined after 1885 while vaccination rates plummeted. It’s important to note that the death rate for children of all ages did not begin to change until about 1880.
Decades of strict vaccination laws did absolutely nothing to improve the overall life expectancy of children in all age groups.
The Leicester Method was basically the “Focused Protection” strategy of The Great Barrington Declaration.
It’s clear to me that everything that happened in the Smallpox vaccination disaster has been repeated today. It’s all happened before. The similarities between Covid compulsory genetics and smallpox compulsory vaccination are uncanny.
It’s also clear to me that vaccination did NOT rid the world of smallpox, but exactly the opposite is true. Smallpox vaccination kept smallpox going for decades longer than it would have otherwise done so.
I created this Substack to bring awareness to the fact we are presently reliving the smallpox vaccine tragedy where a deadly and unproven vaccine was released to the market in 1796. Once it came into widespread use, instead of preventing smallpox, it repeatedly caused widespread smallpox outbreaks and maimed or killed countless people around the world. As the vaccine caused smallpox epidemics around the world, governments responded by increasingly draconian mandates to vaccinate (and then boost) the population to try and address the increasing waves of smallpox. The medical profession and intellectual class supported these mandates while the working class opposed them, often going to prison or losing their possession for doing so.
The very foundation mythology of “we got rid of smallpox with vaccination” is a rewritten medical and political fiction. It suits plenty of interests, but it’s not true.
I am yet to find anything true within this whole vaccination shitshow.
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