NSSM 200

On Empire, Fertility, Resources and The Kissinger Report

• The overall strategy above provides a general approach through which the difficulties and dangers of population growth and related problems can be approached in a balanced and comprehensive basis. No single effort will do the job. Only a concerted and major effort in a number of carefully selected directions can provide the hope of success in reducing population growth and its unwanted dangers to world economic will-being and political stability. There are no "quick-fixes" in this field. Below are specific program recommendations which are designed to implement this strategy. Some will require few new resources; many call for major efforts and significant new resources. We cannot simply buy population growth moderation for nearly 4 billion people "on the cheap". - Page 84

• While specific goals in this area are difficult to state, our aim should be for the world to achieve a replacement level of fertility, (a two- child family on the average), by about the year 2000. This will require the present 2 percent growth rate to decline to 1.7 percent within a decade and to 1.1 percent by 2000 compared to the U.N medium projection, this goal would result in 500 million fewer people in 2000 and about 3 billion fewer in 2050. Attainment of this goal will require greatly intensified population programs. A basis for developing national population growth control targets to achieve this world target is contained in the World Population Plan of Action. - Page 10

• No country has reduced its population growth without resorting to abortion. - Page 114

• Developing alternatives to children as a source of old age security – Page 11

• Ethics Question: Which is worse; to kill 100 million or prevent 3 billion from being born? – Unbekoming

Most people have never heard of National Security Study Memorandum (NSSM) 200.

I only became aware of it recently.

Of those that are aware of it, most haven’t read it. It’s 123 pages.

Here is the full report.

Nssm 200 Declassified

462KB ∙ PDF file

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I’m going to do my bit to put a dent into both awareness and readability.

There is no evidence that Empire’s policies are not still directed by this document. Quite the contrary.

I would ask you to read this stack, and its summary of NSSM 200, with Covid in mind and see if what you take away from NSSM 200 maps over what you have witnessed and experienced during the GMC.

It is not my view that the GMC’s primary goal was the suppression of population growth.

It is my view that one of Empire’s many objectives from the GMC was the suppression of national economic development globally, with the suppression of fertility as but one means of doing that.

Here’s a short video I got from Inversionism on NSSM 200:

NSSM 200 was written in 1974 and declassified in 1980.

It’s a document of Empire. A rare window into its thinking.

If I were to summarize it in a sentence, it would be:

“The fewer people there are, the more resources will be available to Empire.”

If anyone else has a better or different summation, please don’t be shy in the comments.

It is quite a confusing document at times, because you would swear blind that the authors are concerned for the welfare of the world’s poor.

• The most serious consequence for the short and middle term is the possibility of massive famines in certain parts of the world, especially the poorest regions. – Page 5

• In addition to the overall impact on per capita incomes, rapid population growth seriously affects a vast range of other aspects of the quality of life important to social and economic progress in the LDCs. – Page 6

So, through one side of its mouth Empire is expressing concern for “famines” in the poorest regions and the “quality of life” in LDCs (Less Developed Countries) while reminding the reader that “We cannot simply buy population growth moderation [preventing births] for nearly 4 billion people "on the cheap".”

But once you settle into the Doublespeak you start to see what really matters and why Empire wrote this “Memo”.

The word “Must” is used 53 times e.g.

• “Above all, LDCs themselves must play the most important role to achieve success.”

Remember that an LDC is an entire country.

It “must” reduce its population growth to numbers we [Empire] approve of.

And if they don’t…?

There is an urgency to this document that is very real. This isn’t a “brainstorming” exercise full of maybes and hopefullys. It is saying unequivocally that we, Empire, have a problem and this is what “must” be done about it.

“Abortion” is mentioned 44 times e.g.

• No country has reduced its population growth without resorting to abortion. – Page 114

It’s now clear to me why US Empire has exported abortion and abortion rights all over the world. It’s all part of its resource management strategy.

“Woman’s rights” as an export, can also be viewed through the lens of resource management. Smaller families, fewer children, less demand for resources that Empire considers itself entitled to.

“Minerals” is mentioned 17 times and “Resources” 92 times e.g.

• Whatever may be done to guard against interruptions of supply and to develop domestic alternatives, the U.S. economy will require large and increasing amounts of minerals from abroad, especially from less developed countries. That fact gives the U.S. enhanced interest in the political, economic, and social stability of the supplying countries. Wherever a lessening of population pressures through reduced birth rates can increase the prospects for such stability, population policy becomes relevant to resource supplies and to the economic interests of the United States. - Page 42

Climate is mentioned twice e.g.

• This is not to say that the LDCs need face starvation in the next two decades, for the same projections indicate an even greater increase in production of grains in the developed nations. It should be pointed out, however, that these projections assume that such major problems as the vast increase in the need for fresh water, the ecological effects of the vast increase in the application of fertilizer, pesticides, and irrigation, and the apparent adverse trend in the global climate, are solved. At present, there are no solutions to these problems in sight. – Page 103

Vaccines are mentioned Zero times.

What is mentioned is:

• “Improved health care and nutrition to reduce child mortality” – Page 7

• “Reducing infant mortality, including through simple low cost health care networks” – Page 11

• “Act on our offer at Bucharest to collaborate with other interested donors and U.N. agencies to aid selected countries to develop low cost preventive health and family planning services.” – Page 12

This is code, for among other things, vaccines.

I feel that I now finally have a better handle on the geopolitical value and objective of global childhood vaccination.

Remember that this is 1974, and the Soviet Union has not collapsed yet. Climate Change only became a thing after the collapse of the Soviets when Empire seeded it into the Global consciousness.

Empire’s Religions - Lies are Unbekoming (substack.com)

• The question arises: what can serve as an overarching religion (or collection of religions) that will support and stabilize increased USA global economic predation in the unipolar context following the fall of the Soviet Union, in a globalized world built on “universal human rights” since the end of WWII, in which multicultural immigration is a labour-supply reality? – Rancourt

• In summary, all the reviewed data shows that “global warming” suddenly became “a thing”, both in the general culture and in the science community, when the UNFCCC and Earth Summit said it was a thing. Both the UNFCCC and Earth Summit were organized immediately following the fall of the Soviet Union. – Rancourt

What I want to say about Climate in the context of NSSM 200 relates to this passage in the above paragraph:

• “…and the apparent adverse trend in the global climate…”

I haven’t written about Geoengineering yet, but I will.

Until then here's Lyndon Johnson in 1962, the year before he took over from JFK as President of the USA. From 0:55, he says they have the foundations for "the development of a weather satellite that could control the weather.. and he that controls the weather controls the world."

Empire has the technology to “control the weather”. For those of you that haven’t come across Geoengineering before, I would just ask that you give me the benefit of the doubt and take it on faith for now. I will write about it in detail later.

And if you can control the weather, it means you can control “adverse trends in the global climate” which means you can engage in economic and weather warfare with nations who don’t play ball.

In 1968, Professor Gordon J.F. McDonald, a member of President Lyndon Johnson's Science Advisory Commission, explained in detail the technologies used to alter the weather in a chapter of his book How To Wreck the Environment.

“How to Wreck the Environment” — MacDonald’s Blueprint for Modern Geophysical Warfare (renegadetribune.com)

There he wrote: ''The key to geophysical warfare is the identification of environmental instabilities which, by adding small amounts of energy, will release much larger amounts of energy''. He also described extensive field programs and explained the scientific background and the military's capacity to hide operations through environmental chaos. So he writes:

Such a ''hidden war'' need never be declared or known by the affected population. It could last for years and only the security forces involved would be aware of it.

Years of drought and storms would be attributed to an inhospitable nature and only after the nation is thoroughly exhausted would an armed takeover be attempted.

Back to NSSM 200.

Malthus gets an honorable mention 3 times e.g.

There exists at least the possibility that present developments point toward Malthusian conditions for many regions of the world. -Page 9

Denis Rancourt wrote this in Sept 2022.

I am against: woke, NATO, any USA-controlled "global" currency, USA suppression of economic development of "allies" and colonies, climate CO2 nonsense, and Pharma-vaccines. In 2019, I published a detailed report explaining how they are intricately connected.

When reading NSSM 200 I would ask you to also read it through the lens of “suppression of economic development”. When you suppress and throttle the growth of a nation’s population, you suppress their development. Allies included.

This is one of my favourite passages:

Executive summary Point 33

We must take care that our activities should not give the appearance to the LDCs of an industrialized country policy directed against the LDCs. Caution must be taken that in any approaches in this field we support in the LDCs are ones we can support within this country. "Third World" leaders should be in the forefront and obtain the credit for successful programs. In this context it is important to demonstrate to LDC leaders that such family planning programs have worked and can work within a reasonable period of time. – Page 13

Translated in English, from mealy-mouthed Doublespeak:

We must take care that our intentions are not discovered. We need to make them [the leaders of the LDCs] think it’s their idea and let them take the credit.

Now, with all that said, let’s get into NSSM 200.

It’s important to understand the context of this 1974 report.

It followed the 1969 book by Paul Ehlich The Population Bomb that popularized the idea that we have too many people.

And also followed The Club of Rome’s 1972 book The Limits to Growth.

These were works of Oligarchy that become doctrines of Empire.

The Limits to Growth – Introduction

"I do not wish to seem overdramatic, but I can only conclude from the information that is available to me as Secretary–General, that the Members of the United Nations have perhaps ten years left in which to subordinate their ancient quarrels and launch a global partnership to curb the arms race, to improve the human environment, to defuse the population explosion, and to supply the required momentum to development efforts. If such a global partnership is not forged within the next decade, then I very much fear that the problems I have mentioned will have reached such staggering proportions that they will be beyond our capacity to control." - U THANT, 1969

Empire’s desire to “manage” resources for itself has a long history and it deployed a global, multi-pronged attack on fertility to achieve its ends. The consequences of which we still live with today.

Here is an informative passage from this archival website I found:

National Security Study Memorandum - NSSM-200 (nssm200.com)

What had been largely a private sector crusade now became a taxpayer supported endeavor.

However, by this time, Richard Nixon was up to his eyeballs in the Watergate scandal.  He would soon leave the office of the president and be replaced by Gerald Ford… who promptly endorsed the report’s conclusions, with just a few caveats and concerns expressed about the report’s proposed methods (NSDM 314).

Most people, after reading the final report for themselves, are horrified to learn what the elites were prepared to do, and in fact, may still be doing, to their fellow man.

At the time of this writing, there is no documentary evidence publicly available that suggests that the policies Gerald Ford directed the U.S. to implement vis a vis NSSM-200 have ceased to be the official position of the United States of America.  If anyone has such evidence, this site would be pleased to reflect it.

Now, here is slightly more than a one sentence summary of NSSM 200:

NSSM 200 lays bare the US government's underlying strategic priority: to preserve access to resources and stability for itself, regardless of independent sovereign interests internationally.

While it portrays unchecked population growth as a humanitarian and ecological crisis, the analysis overwhelmingly focuses on implications for continued rapid US economic expansion and political dominance. It presses developing countries to curtail their fertility without hesitation, through voluntary means if possible but even mandatory measures if required.

The supposed aim of sustainable global development is subsidiary to the core goal of massive fertility reductions enabling more consumption by the US and other rich nations. No meaningful priority goes to helping poorer countries achieve economic security, education, health, and longevity - only lower birth rates.

Even the private advocacy groups promoted are simply vehicles to spread US directed population control globally. The blueprint for population reduction verges on coercive, pushing external family planning and sterilization, even if countries resist on grounds of national priorities or cultural values. Ultimatums to limit fertility are pressed on poor countries behind the smokescreen of "international cooperation."

In all, the memo is a chilling plan to restrain less powerful nations as demographic threats grow, ensuring ongoing power and plentitude for the US empire.

NSSM 200 - A Comprehensive Summary

What I have created here, in the remainder of this stack, is a detailed summary of the 123 page report.

The format I’ve used is to create a list of key takeaways from each chapter or section, with a list of excerpts and statistics (if warranted) for each.

I did not summarize sections 3 or 5 and included them whole as they were short.

One of my goals is to create a version of this report that can be read (and listened to from the Substack App) within about 45 minutes.

So, buckle up and let’s begin…

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Part One: Analytical Section

Chapter I: World Demographic Trends

Chapter II: Population and World Food Supplies

Chapter III: Minerals and Fuel

Chapter IV: Economic Development and Population Growth

Chapter V: Implications of Population Pressures for National Security

Chapter VI: World Population Conference

Part Two: Policy Recommendations

Section I: A U.S. Global Population Strategy

Section II: Action to Create Conditions for Fertility Decline: Population and a Development Assistance Strategy

A. General Strategy and Resource for A.I.D. Assistance

B. Functional Assistance Programs to Create Conditions for Fertility Decline

C. Food for Peace Program and Population

Section III: International Organizations and Other Multilateral Population Programs

A. UN Organization and Specialized Agencies

B. Encouraging Private Organizations

Section IV: Provision and Development of Family Planning Services, Information and Technology

A. Research to Improve Fertility Control Technology

B. Development of Low-Cost Delivery Systems

C. Utilization of Mass Media and Satellite Communications System for Family Planning

Section V: Action to Develop Worldwide Political and Popular Commitment to Population Stability

Executive Summary:

The report examines the impacts of rapid global population growth and outlines a strategy for the US to help address this critical issue. It concludes that population factors seriously impede socioeconomic progress in developing countries and threaten political stability. US policy should aim to stabilize world population at 8-9 billion by 2075 rather than let it reach 12-15 billion based on existing trends. This will require intensified efforts to support family planning, motivate lower fertility rates, and integrate population factors into country development plans. A spending increase of $35-50 million per year is proposed for population aid programs. Leaders in key developing countries must be urged to prioritize this issue. Coordination mechanisms are also vital for policy development and implementation across US government agencies. Timely action is essential to make tangible progress before demographic momentum becomes unmanageable.

Key Takeaways:

1. Unprecedented population growth could double world numbers in just 35 years, mostly in already poor regions.

2. Serious food shortages are probable even if production expands, especially if climate disruptions occur.

3. Mineral scarcities are less impacted directly by population size than development levels affecting demand.

4. High fertility impedes per capita income growth, diverting investments to expand food production.

5. Family planning services are highly cost-effective for enabling economic progress.

6. Selective assistance for health, education, agriculture and women’s status can motivate lower fertility.

7. Rapid urbanization strains capacities to provide jobs and manage migration flows.

8. Youth bulges, unequal growth rates and migration accentuate civil disorder risks.

9. International migrations, food deficits and anti-US alignments may intensify with demographic strains.

10. Even immediate action will take decades to substantially slow population momentum.

11. US strategy aims for 8-9 billion global population, focusing aid on high growth poor countries and pushing leaders to act.

12. Goals include reaching replacement fertility levels by 2000 in developing countries.

13. Policy integrates population factors into assistance planning and national development strategies.

14. Family planning access would reach 85% of vulnerable poor rural populations by 1980.

15. Biomedical research funding would grow by $60 million annually to boost contraceptive options.

16. Food reserves cushion against instability while motivating smaller families via better child survival odds.

17. Leaders must recognize demographic challenges and be out front on solutions domestically and internationally.

18. US should announce its aim for near population stability by 2000 to reinforce credibility abroad.

19. An executive branch body should coordinate analysis and implementation across agencies.

20. Congressional support will require high level advocacy regarding budget increases over years.

21. Alternate views merit consideration regarding potential needs for more mandatory measures if voluntary efforts fall short.

Excerpts:

• "Rapid population growth seriously hinders economic and social progress in many developing countries by absorbing large amounts of resources needed for investments in development."

• "There is general agreement that up to the point when cost per acceptor rises rapidly, family planning expenditures are generally considered the best investment a country can make in its own future."

• "The pace of internal migration from countryside to overswollen cities is greatly intensified by rapid population growth."

• "Adverse socio-economic conditions generated by these and related factors may contribute to high and increasing levels of child abandonment, juvenile delinquency, chronic and growing underemployment and unemployment..."

• "In international relations, population factors are crucial in, and often determinants of, violent conflicts in developing areas."

• "The central question for world population policy is whether mankind is to remain on a track toward 12-15 billion people by 2075 with most increases concentrated in poverty-stricken regions - or switch toward a population stable level half as large with vast benefits in quality of life and environmental sustainability."

• "There is need for more information on cost effectiveness of different approaches on both the "supply" and the "demand" side of the population picture."

• "What are the stakes? We do not know whether technological developments will make it possible to adequately feed over 8 billion much less 12 billion people in the 21st century."

Statistics:

• 2%: Average annual world population growth rate

• 8-9 billion: Feasible stabilized global population target

• 12-15 billion: Projected 2075 population based on trends continuing

• 500 million: Fewer people globally in 2000 if replacement fertility reached by 2000

• 3 billion: Fewer people globally in 2050 if replacement fertility reached by 2000

• 47%: Share of current global population growth occurring in top 13 highest growth developing countries

• $35-50 million: Proposed annual US spending increase on population assistance programs

• 85%: Target portion of vulnerable populations in key countries provided family planning access by 1980

Chapter I: World Demographic Trends

This chapter provides an overview of global population growth trends, projections, and implications. It notes the world is undergoing unprecedented population growth, far surpassing historical rates. Growth is concentrated in less developed countries (LDCs), which are projected to account for 80% of world population by 2000. Major concerns include massive future growth momentum even if fertility declines, rapid urbanization, and the burden for LDCs to provide employment, services and development with booming populations.

Detailed analysis is provided by country and region. Africa, Latin America, and Asia are flagged as facing serious challenges accommodating projected growth. The report concludes rapid growth threatens to slow progress on development and living standards in LDCs to an "intolerably slow" pace without significant fertility reduction. It urges recognizing the implications and taking action toward population goals.

Key takeaways:

1. World population growth rates are far higher than ever before due to medical/public health advances enabling mortality declines.

2. Growth rates are much higher in LDCs than developed countries; LDCs face a problematic imbalance accommodating growth.

3. Cities are growing over twice as fast as total populations, especially straining LDCs.

4. Even with projected fertility decline, population momentum means massive future growth is inevitable for decades absent extreme famine/war.

5. Africa, Latin America and Asia are called out as facing particularly serious challenges handling expected growth.

6. China's large, poor population with limited land is noted as a severe concern.

7. Projections indicate LDCs will comprise 80% of world population by 2000, up from 70% in 1970.

8. Rapid urbanization is projected to continue increasing the percent of LDC population in cities from 25% in 1970 to 41% by 2000.

9. Recognition of growth implications and vigorous fertility reduction efforts are urged to avoid intolerably slow development progress.

10. Fertility rates have significantly declined in some LDCs but not substantially in more populous countries.

11. Even with expected medium variant fertility reductions, the world population is still projected to reach 6.4 billion in 2000 and over 12 billion by 2100.

12. Africa's population is projected to increase nearly 2.5 times from 1970-2000, posing extreme challenges for "least developed" countries there.

13. Nigeria's rapid growth suggests an increasing political/strategic role within Africa.

14. Brazil's projected population of 212 million by 2000 points to an elevated global power status.

15. Mexico's population is expected to surpass 100 million by 2000 even under optimistic assumptions.

16. Despite overall higher LDC growth, centrally planned LDC economies have much lower projected growth of only 1.4% from 1970-2000.

17. India and South/Southeast Asia face "bleak" prospects balancing large projected growth and development.

18. China's population and growth are identified as concerning given living standards and land constraints.

19. Urban populations in LDCs are projected to more than triple from 1970-2000, from 622 million to over 2 billion.

20. The difference in projections between high and replacement fertility over 1970-2075 span up to 3.7 billion people.

21. Fertility rates are already under replacement level in some USSR republics and the U.S., but the USSR is concerned and weighing policies to increase birth rates.

Excerpts:

• "Unlike a conventional explosion, population growth provides a continuing chain reaction. This momentum springs from (1) high fertility levels of LDC populations and (2) the very high percentage of maturing young people in populations."

• "Therefore, if a country wants to influence its total numbers through population policy, it must act in the immediate future in order to make a substantial difference in the long run."

• "The accomplishment of these tasks could be intolerably slow if the average annual growth rate in the remainder of this century does not slow down to well below the 2.7 percent projected, under the medium variant, for LDCs with market economics."

• "Moreover, short of Draconian measures there is no possibility that any LDC can stabilize its population at less than double its present size. For many, stabilization will not tee short of three times their present size."

• "In the United States, average fertility also fell below replacement level in the past two years (1972 and 1973). There is a striking difference, however, in the attitudes toward this demographic development in the two countries."

• "On the contrary, preoccupation with the growing internal economic and social problems resulting from huge population increases may progressively reduce the ability of the region, especially India, to play an effective regional and world power role."

• "The People's Republic of China has by far the world's largest population and, potentially, severe problems of population pressure, given its low standard of living and quite intensive utilization of available farm land resources."

• "African countries endowed with rich oil and other natural resources may be in a better economic position to cope with population expansion. Nigeria falls into this category."

Statistics:

• At the current growth rate (1.9 percent) world population will double in 37 years.

• Less developed countries have average population growth rates around 2.4 percent.

• Urban population increased from 28% of total in 1950 to 36% by 1970, and is projected to reach 50% (3.2 billion) by 2000.

• From 1970-2000, the population of less developed countries is projected to double from 2.5 to 5 billion.

• Populations of "least developed" African countries are projected to grow from 104 million in 1970 to 250 million by 2000.

• Brazil's population is projected to reach 212 million by 2000, similar to the 1974 U.S. population level.

• Mexico's population is projected to grow from 50 million in 1970 to over 130 million by 2000.

• Urban populations in less developed countries are expected to triple from 1970-2000, rising from 622 million to over 2 billion.

Chapter II: Population and World Food Supplies

This chapter focuses on the serious global food supply challenges resulting from unprecedented world population growth, especially in less developed countries (LDCs). It notes LDCs have managed to stay ahead of population growth in food production over the past decades. However, the food situation deteriorated sharply in 1972-1973, exhausting world reserves, and indicating grave future issues meeting needs if trends continue.

While projections show physical capacity for adequate global food production through 2000, they require massive increases in yields, fertilizer and irrigation. Such growth is uncertain due to constraints like environmental factors, rising costs, and execution challenges requiring major capacity building and prioritization in LDCs. Regional analyses show LDCs facing alarming rises in import dependence and costs, which will be economically unsustainable for poorer Asian and African countries.

Reducing population growth emerges as an urgent priority. Even under optimistic assumptions, growth momentum means populations will continue increasing for decades. However, fertility reduction to replacement levels by 2000 could eliminate a 100 million ton cereal import gap by 2000 and make long term improvement feasible. Intensified agriculture efforts are also called for but face hurdles. The memo concludes genuine commitment and coordinated policies are essential to address the issues raised.

Key takeaways:

1. Unprecedented food demand growth has radically outpaced historical levels due to both rising populations and improving diets.

2. LDCs have managed to exceed population growth in food production - but less so on a per capita basis.

3. The 1972-1973 global food situation showed reserves inadequate to endure production shocks, portending future crises.

4. Projections show physical ability to meet 1985 and 2000 needs - but require enormous, uncertain boosts in yields, fertilizers, irrigation, etc.

5. Analyses see inability for poorer Asian/African countries to finance massive projected import needs.

6. Even optimistic assumptions mean momentum ensures growing populations for decades absent fertility reductions.

7. Achieving replacement fertility by 2000 could essentially eliminate a 100 million ton import gap; more time means much higher gaps.

8. Agriculture investments face hurdles too but offer nearer term relief potential combined with population efforts.

9. The memo calls for commitment to coordinated policies addressing the challenges raised across countries.

10. In 1972, world food production per capita in LDCs retreated back to early 1960s’ levels, showing tenuous margin for error.

11. Issues in Latin America appear more manageable; Mexico/Central America can leverage US transport.

12. An expert believes Indian yields could theoretically more than double with improved practices/inputs.

13. One view holds fertility reduction post-1985 will be crucial to adequate future diets.

14. Even slowing LDCs to 2% growth vs. 3%+ could ease import needs substantially post-2000 and more over time.

15. The memo notes most proposed solutions are agreed; political will to enact them is essential.

Excerpts:

• "Even taking the most optimistic view of the theoretical possibilities of producing enough foods in the developed countries to meet the requirements of the developing countries, the problem of increased costs to the LDCs is already extremely serious and in its future may be insurmountable."

• "It seems highly unlikely, however, that the poorer countries of Asia and Africa will be able to finance nearly like the level of import requirements projected by the USDA."

• "While foreign assistance probably will continue to be forthcoming to meet short-term emergency situations like the threat of mass starvation, it is more questionable whether aid donor countries will be prepared to provide the sort of massive food aid called for by the import projections on a long-term continuing basis."

• "Reduced population growth rates clearly could bring significant relief over the longer term. Some analysts maintain that for the post-1985 period a rapid decline in fertility will be crucial to adequate diets worldwide."

• "If, as noted before, fertility in the developing countries could be made to decline to the replacement level by the year 2000, the world's population in that year would be 5.9 billion or 500 million below the level that would be attained if the UN medium projection were followed."

• "It must be realized, however, that this will be difficult in all countries and probably impossible in some ── or many."

• "Population growth in a number of these countries exceeds that rate."

• "What will be required is a genuine commitment to a set of policies that will lead the international community, both developed and developing countries, to the achievement of the objectives spelled out above."

Statistics:

• Annual world cereal demand growth has risen from 4 million tons in 1900 to 30 million tons by 1970.

• North Americans consume nearly a ton of grain per person annually, while LDC average is around 400 pounds eating directly as cereal.

• 24 LDCs saw population growth outpace food production increases in 1970, including Indonesia and Nigeria.

• India and Pakistan saw tiny food production gains over population growth by 1970 - unable to keep up with domestic demand.

• LDCs are projected to need to import 102-122 million tons of cereal by 2000, up from 21.4 million tons in 1970.

• The cost of LDC cereal imports is estimated to rise to $16-20 billion by 2000 from $2.5 billion in 1970.

• At least 3/4s of projected LDC cereal import increases fall to poorer Asian and African countries.

• Reaching replacement fertility by 2000 could cut 500 million from the 2000 population projection of 6.4 billion.

Chapter III: Minerals and Fuel

The chapter discusses global availability of minerals and fuel through the end of the 21st century. It concludes that population growth alone is unlikely to cause serious shortages, although intermediate problems may occur. Adequate reserves exist for most minerals to meet demand, although price increases may be needed in some cases. However, availability does not assure supplies if countries cannot afford imports. The US is relatively well-off but dependent on imports from unstable sources. Lower population growth could increase stability in some supplier countries.

Key takeaways:

1. Global reserves of most non-fuel minerals appear adequate through the 21st century at current prices.

2. Shortages may occur for specific minerals at times due to business miscalculations or delays in developing substitutes.

3. Fossil fuel reserves are adequate for the next few decades, longer for coal and oil shale.

4. For the US, oil and gas reserves may only last 2-3 decades at current rates.

5. Higher prices can expand economically recoverable reserves for many minerals.

6. Population growth has little direct effect on non-fuel mineral demand, more related to income and output.

7. Rapid population growth can initially increase raw materials demand as economies industrialize.

8. The US depends heavily on imports from unstable developing countries.

9. Lower population growth can increase stability in some supplier countries.

10. Availability does not help countries unable to afford imports at high prices.

11. Cartels may try raising prices but likely less successful than for oil.

12. Stockpiling and domestic supply development may be needed to reduce import dependence.

13. The US has an interest in socio-economic stability in supplier countries.

14. Lower birth rates can help ease pressures and increase stability.

15. A lower world population would require less annual natural resource inputs.

16. Shortages for specific minerals may occur at times despite adequate overall reserves.

17. Technological change can alter reserve estimates and substitute materials.

18. An early warning system could help anticipate commodity surpluses and shortages.

19. The US and other developed economies show declining raw material usage per GDP.

20. Developing countries initial industrialization temporarily increases materials intensity.

21. Price changes alter the quantity of economically recoverable mineral reserves.

Excerpts:

• "This favourable outlook on reserves does not rule out shortage situations for specific minerals at particular times and places."

• "The major factor influencing the demand for non-agricultural raw materials is the level of industrial activity, regional and global."

• "The important potential linkage between rapid population growth and minerals availability is indirect rather than direct."

• "The real problems of mineral supplies lie, not in basic physical sufficiency, but in the politico-economic issues of access, terms for exploration and exploitation, and division of the benefits among producers, consumers, and host country governments."

• "The U.S. economy will require large and increasing amounts of minerals from abroad, especially from less developed countries."

• "That fact gives the U.S. enhanced interest in the political, economic, and social stability of the supplying countries."

• "Wherever a lessening of population pressures through reduced birth rates can increase the prospects for such stability, population policy becomes relevant to resource supplies and to the economic interests of the United States."

• "Changes in the relative prices of raw materials change the amount of economically recoverable reserves."

Statistics:

• 33%: Portion of global resources consumed by the US with 6% of population

• 25 years: Typical "proven reserves" timeline matching projected demand

• 8-9 billion: Lower possible peak global population requiring fewer resources

• 99%: Share of US mineral trade deficit accounted for by 9 key imports

• 76%: Aluminum imports sourced from Canada

• 42%: US petroleum imports from Canada

• 3.58 billion: Low-end estimate of global bauxite reserves at current prices

Chapter IV: Economic Development and Population Growth

The chapter discusses how rapid population growth in developing countries strains resources and hinders economic and social progress. It absorbs investments, raises service costs, increases dependency burdens, reduces savings and domestic investment, strains limited agricultural land, and worsens unemployment. Family planning is a highly effective investment for countries. Lower fertility can free up resources for growth, support higher per child investment, ease strains on agricultural lands, and mitigate income inequality over generations. Development policy should selectively target health, education, legal age of marriage, and agricultural modernization to help bring down high fertility rates. Lower fertility will also help address strained urban employment, incomes, migration, and living standards, although with long time lags.

Key Takeaways:

1. Rapid population growth diverts resources from more productive investments needed for development.

2. It increases expenditures on health, education, services and urban infrastructure.

3. It raises the dependency burden per worker and lowers per capita savings.

4. In crowded agricultural areas it leads to smaller plots, ecological damage, and urban migration.

5. It worsens unemployment, income disparities, political stability and living standards.

6. Family planning is a highly efficient investment for development compared to alternatives.

7. Lower fertility releases resources for savings and investment to fuel growth.

8. With fewer children, more resources can be targeted per child.

9. Slower labor force growth eases strains on agricultural lands and helps increase output and incomes.

10. High fertility reinforces intergenerational poverty and income inequality.

11. Selective policies focusing on health, education, legal age of marriage and agricultural modernization can accelerate fertility decline.

12. Urban living standards suffer from continued high urban fertility driving migration.

13. Contraception availability is not enough; motivations favoring large families in rural areas must be addressed.

14. Benefits of lower fertility take decades to realize fully, making early action imperative.

15. The extent to which the poor benefit from development affects their fertility rates.

16. Inability to find adequate jobs worsens income inequality, frustration and political stability.

17. Excessive population growth directly contributes to low worker productivity and urban overcrowding.

18. Lower birth rates provide immediate relief to health, sanitation and welfare systems.

19. The largest economic impacts on employment, migration and living standards emerge over long time periods.

20. Lag times reinforce the urgency of implementing effective policies immediately.

21. Even imminent demographic shifts from births already far outnumber deaths in the near-term.

Excerpts:

• "Rapid population growth adversely affects every aspect of economic and social progress in developing countries."

• "It is also now widely believed that something more that family planning services will be needed to motivate other couples to want smaller families."

• "If resource requirements to support fewer children are reduced and the funds now allocated for construction of schools, houses, hospitals and other essential facilities are invested in productive activities, the impact on the growth of GNP and per capita income may be significant."

• "In addition to the more-or-less conscious trade- offs parents can make about more education and better health per child, there are certain biologic adverse effects suffered by high birth order children such as higher mortality and limited brain growth due to higher incidence of malnutrition."

• "Society's capital stock includes facilities such as schools and other educational inputs in addition to capital investments that raise workers' outputs in agriculture and manufacturing."

• "The inability of large segments of the economically active population in developing countries to find jobs offering a minimum acceptable standard of living is reflected in a widening of income disparities and a deepening sense of economic, political and social frustration."

• "It should be recognized that lower fertility will relieve only a portion of these strains and that its most beneficial effects will be felt only over a period of decades."

• "The time lags inherent in all aspects of population dynamics only reinforce the urgency of adopting effective policies in the years immediately ahead if the formidable problems of the present decade are not to become utterly unmanageable in the 1990s and beyond the year 2000."

Statistics:

• 5%: Developing country GNP growth over past decade

• 2.5%: Developing country population growth over past decade

• 2.5%: Developing country per capita income growth over past decade

• 3.6%: Developed country per capita income growth over past decade

• <1%: Projected per capita income growth for 500 million in hardest hit developing countries through the 1970s

• $100: Average income projected for over 500 million people experiencing negligible or negative per capita income growth through the 1970s

Chapter V: Implications of Population Pressures for National Security

The chapter examines how rapid population growth and other demographic factors can destabilize developing countries and harm US interests. Factors like uneven growth rates, migration, urbanization, pressure on resources, and youth bulges multiply other causes of conflict and unrest. Cases are cited where demographic elements indirectly impacted disputes between El Salvador/Honduras, Nigeria, India/Pakistan/Bangladesh, Indonesia, Rwanda/Burundi, Uganda, and Sri Lanka. Potential future instability is analyzed for countries including China, Israel/Arab states, India/Bangladesh, Africa's Sahel region, Panama, and Mexico. Collectively, these population pressures can tax capacities of fragile governments, deplete resources, spur radical ideologies and illegal migration, invite foreign intervention, and increasingly align countries against the US internationally. Global coordination to advance socioeconomic development and stabilize population growth is urgently needed.

Key Takeaways:

1. Rapid population growth diverts resources from development and strains government capacities.

2. Youth bulges, uneven growth rates across ethnic groups, and migration can be destabilizing.

3. Population pressures aggravated conflicts between El Salvador/Honduras, Nigeria, India/Pakistan, Rwanda/Burundi, and others.

4. Continued high fertility in Egypt and the Middle East may diminish prospects for lasting peace.

5. Bangladesh's poverty, joblessness and land scarcity raise risks of chaos and intervention.

6. Population growth in the Sahel region contributed to desertification and famine crises.

7. Disputes over canal jurisdiction and expanding migrations complicate US-Mexico ties.

8. Collectively, demographic stresses spur radicalization, illegal migration, and anti-US alignments.

9. Rapidity of change hinders historical comparisons of current population impacts.

10. Agricultural land limits, rising expectations and global communications exacerbate pressures.

11. Weak LDC governments often cannot manage the strains of high growth rates.

12. Scarcities increase internal disorder risks and vulnerabilities to foreign exploitation.

13. Youth bulges may increase propensities for volatility, extremism and violence.

14. Low per capita income growth in crowded developing countries provokes instability.

15. Slowed development and modernization delay the demographic transition to lower fertility.

16. Cities struggle to provide jobs, services and housing to meet high rural migration.

17. Environmental damage and food deficits may force painful policy choices over time.

18. Global efforts to stabilize population growth are essential to avoid intensifying hardships.

19. High growth rates and young populations increase likelihoods of domestic upheaval or international conflicts.

20. Even immediate action will take decades to moderate still increasing demographic pressures.

21. US interests are threatened by lagging development and potential chaos in strategically located countries.

Excerpts:

• "Rapid population growth adversely affects every aspect of economic and social progress in developing countries."

• "They act through intervening elements -- variables. They also add to other causative factors turning what might have been only a difficult situation into one with disruptive results."

• "This action is seldom simple. Professor Philip Hauser of the University of Chicago has suggested the concept of "population complosion" to describe the situation in many developing countries when (a) more and more people are born into or move into and are compressed in the same living space under (b) conditions and irritations of different races, colours, religions, languages, or cultural backgrounds, often with differential rates of population growth among these groups, and (c) with the frustrations of failure to achieve their aspirations for better standards of living for themselves or their children."

• "The world has ample warning that we all must make more rapid efforts at social and economic development to avoid or mitigate these gloomy prospects. We should be warned also that we all must move as rapidly as possible toward stabilizing national and world population growth."

• "There may be increased propensities for violence arising simply from technological developments making it easier ── e.g., international proliferation and more ready accessibility to sub-national groups of nuclear and other lethal weaponry."

• "Population movements within countries appear to have a large role in disorders. Migrations into neighbouring countries (especially those richer or more sparsely settled), whether legal or illegal, can provoke negative political reactions or force."

• "The central issue will be how to make it last. Egypt with about 37 million today is growing at 2.8% per year. It will approximate 48 million by 1985, 75 million by 1995, and more than 85 million by 2000. It is doubtful that Egypt's economic progress can greatly exceed its population growth."

• "Collectively, these groupings at times appear to reflect a common desire to launch economic attacks against the United States and, to a lesser degree, the European developed countries. A factor which is common to all of them, which retards their development, burdens their foreign exchange, subjects them to world prices for food, fertilizer, and necessities of life and pushes them into disadvantageous trade relations is their excessively rapid population growth."

Statistics:

• 37 million: Egypt's current population

• 48 million: Egypt's projected population by 1985

• 2.8%: Annual population growth rate for Egypt

• 75 million: Egypt's projected population by 1995

• 85 million: Egypt's projected population by 2000

• 300,000: Estimated deaths from 1970 East Pakistan hurricane

• 9-10 million: Refugees entering India from East Pakistan in 1971

• 9 million: Births averted in India through 8 years of family planning

• 580 million: India's current population

• 1 billion: Projected population India must cope with

• 75 million: Current population of Bangladesh

• 170 million: Projected population of Bangladesh by 2000

• 30%: Underemployment and unemployment admitted by Bangladesh

• 40%: Population increase in Bangladesh over last 13 years

• 3%: Annual population growth rate for Bangladesh

Chapter VI: World Population Conference

The 1974 World Population Conference in Bucharest, Romania centered around the World Population Plan of Action (WPPA). The WPPA aimed to incorporate population factors into national planning and ensure availability of family planning resources while respecting countries' sovereignty in setting population policies. Despite some initial opposition, a complete WPPA was adopted. It establishes principles like the right of couples/individuals to decide family size, women's equal participation in society, and interdependence of countries regarding population issues. Recommendations cover areas like mortality reduction, reproductive health services, female education/empowerment, internal/international migration regulation, population data collection, and research. Specific fertility reduction targets are lacking but implicit. Follow-up actions are needed to press countries towards population growth control, including leader education on demographic-economic linkages, population policy integration into national plans, and advancement of women. Overall, the WPPA provides a framework for effective action despite its vague language.

Key takeaways:

1. The World Population Plan of Action was the main output of the 1974 World Population Conference.

2. The WPPA aimed to incorporate population factors into national planning while respecting sovereignty on population policies.

3. There was initial opposition to the WPPA from some African, Latin American, Eastern European, and other countries.

4. Nevertheless, a complete WPPA was unanimously adopted after debate and voting.

5. The WPPA establishes new principles like couples' reproductive rights, women's societal integration, and countries' interdependence.

6. It makes recommendations spanning mortality reduction to data collection and research.

7. The WPPA lacks plain fertility reduction targets but has related implicit goals.

8. Follow-up action is essential to press leaders on demographic-economic linkages and population policy integration.

9. The WPPA wording is vague but provides an action framework if actively utilized.

10. Algeria and Argentina led initial opposition to the WPPA draft demands.

11. The final WPPA retains a right to national sovereignty in setting population policy.

12. Highest priority goes to lowering mortality/morbidity and raising life expectancy.

13. The WPPA urges voluntary but specific fertility reduction goals by 1985.

14. It pushes for women's education, empowerment, societal integration.

15. Rural development investments are urged to slow urbanization.

16. Periodic population assessments are to enable policymaking.

17. A fuller leader education on population is deemed essential after Bucharest.

18. National interests must be conveyed in context of world growth impact.

19. The current food crisis demonstrates the urgency of fertility reduction.

20. Even vague UN fertility reduction goals are close to US proposals.

Excerpts:

• "Population and development are interrelated: population variables influence development variables and are also influenced by them."

• "All couples and individuals have the basic human right to decide freely and responsibly the number and spacing of their children."

• "The sovereignty of nations in determining their own population policies and programs was repeatedly recognized."

• "Countries which consider their population growth hampers attainment of their goals should consider adopting population policies -- through a low level of birth and death rates."

• "Countries are urged to encourage appropriate education concerning responsible parenthood and make available to persons who so desire advice and means of achieving it."

• "The 'primary aim' of the Plan of Action is to expand and deepen the capacities of countries to deal effectively with their national and subnational population problems."

• "A flat declaration of the right of women is included in Para 13(h): Women have the right to complete integration in the development process."

• "The beliefs, ideologies and misconceptions displayed by many nations at Bucharest indicate more forcefully than ever the need for extensive education of the leaders of many governments."

Statistics:

• Current developing world population growth: 2.4% per annum

• Projected developing world population growth by 1985: 2% per annum

• Current developed world population growth: below 0.7% per annum

• Projected global population growth by 1985: 1.7% per annum

• Developing world total fertility rate: 38 per 1000

• Projected developing world total fertility rate by 1985: 30 per 1000

• US goal for developed world fertility: replacement level by 1985

• US goal for worldwide fertility: replacement level by 2000

Part Two: Policy Recommendations

Section I: A U.S. Global Population Strategy

The section outlines a proposed strategy for the US government to address rapid global population growth and promote population stabilization. Key elements include prioritizing assistance to high growth developing countries, integrating population factors into national planning, expanding access to family planning services, creating conditions for fertility decline via socioeconomic development, and building political commitment globally. Bilateral aid programs would be coordinated with multilateral efforts. Specific priority areas span reducing mortality, increasing education (especially for women), expanding employment opportunities for women, changes to social security systems, and investments in rural development and agriculture. The strategy aims for replacement level fertility globally by 2000. Mandatory population control measures are surfaced as a potential alternative perspective but not definitively embraced. Overall the strategy requires significant new funding and effort across sectors, focused especially on empowering developing countries to manage their own population challenges.

Key takeaways:

1. The strategy proposes an integrated bilateral and multilateral approach to address rapid global population growth.

2. High priority developing countries with largest/fastest growth would receive concentrated assistance.

3. National population/family planning programs need incorporation into socioeconomic planning.

4. Expanding access/availability of family planning services to the 85% unreached is crucial.

5. New contraceptive technologies must be simpler, cheaper, safer and more acceptable.

6. Creating conditions for voluntary fertility decline is equally important as family planning access.

7. Priority conditions are female education, lower infant/child mortality, women’s wage employment.

8. Rural development initiatives can provide income growth opportunities to the poor.

9. Food security investments should account for population growth pressure on demand.

10. Global leadership must urgently commit to population stabilization for mutual interests.

11. The strategy intends to empower developing country ownership, not external imposition.

12. US funding and efforts required are significant but unrealistic without public/political support.

13. Alternative perspectives consider whether mandatory controls are necessary if voluntary measures fail.

14. The goal is achieving replacement level fertility rates globally by 2000.

15. Bilateral population aid should synergize with multilateral and voluntary organizations.

16. Future food rationing is raised as a hypothetical question if programs underperform.

17. Program priorities include mortality reduction and expanding women’s societal integration.

18. Rural development to benefit poor sections is reiterated as impacting fertility rates.

19. Leaders have short-term outlooks so must see early population policy benefits firsthand.

20. Geostrategic neutrality will avoid perceptions of racial imperialism behind assistance.

21. Acute population pressures may still engender widespread famine and catastrophes.

Excerpts:

• "The proposed strategy calls for a coordinated approach to respond to the important U.S. foreign policy interest in the influence of population growth on the world's political, economic and ecological systems."

• "The conclusion of this view is that mandatory programs may be needed and that we should be considering these possibilities now."

• "The U.S. strengthened its credibility as an advocate of lower population growth rates by explaining that...our national fertility level was already below replacement and seemed likely to attain a stable population by 2000."

• "We cannot simply buy population growth moderation for nearly 4 billion people 'on the cheap'."

• "No single effort will do the job. Only a concerted and major effort in a number of carefully selected directions can provide the hope of success in reducing population growth and its unwanted dangers to world economic will-being and political stability."

• "Food is another of special concern in any population strategy."

• "It is vital that the effort to develop and strengthen a commitment on the part of the LDC leaders not be seen by them as an industrialized country policy to keep their strength down..."

• "This school of thought believes the following types of questions need to be addressed..." [Lists questions about mandatory controls, food rationing, changing food consumption patterns, fresh water supply threats etc]

Section II: Action to Create Conditions for Fertility Decline: Population and a Development Assistance Strategy

The section outlines specific functional assistance programs across sectors like education, health, employment, and agriculture that can create conditions conducive for voluntary fertility reduction. Strategies focus on priorities like extending female education, reducing infant/child mortality, expanding economic opportunities for women, alternatives to children's old-age security role, rural development benefiting poorer groups, and educating the youth on smaller family norms. It covers past program spending, future budget estimates, the importance of LDC government ownership, and the need for better coordination amongst donors. Overall it argues for a selective, multi-pronged approach across development sectors, tailored to each country's needs and constraints, rather than isolated family planning efforts alone.

Key takeaways:

1. Past population program spending has focused more on drawing attention and developing capabilities.

2. Future spending increases are projected in health, education, agriculture etc. that influence fertility.

3. Female education, infant health, and women's economic standing most directly impact family size.

4. Social security schemes can reduce children's old-age insurance role and high fertility dependence.

5. Rural development and agriculture aid should concentrate on poorer groups with highest fertility rates.

6. Norm change amongst the youth regarding ideal family size is essential for longer-term stabilization.

7. Coordinated efforts across health, education and finance sectors are key to cost-effective delivery.

8. Program design variations for each country should align with their needs and readiness.

9. LDC government commitment and ownership is vital for implementation effectiveness.

10. Donor collaborations must be enhanced by urging unified population goals.

11. Investments in women's agency, rural subsidization, and youth orientation are paramount.

12. Multi-sector population initiatives warrant priority funding support.

13. The World Bank's involvement is lagging; it can play a pivotal financing role.

14. WHO's technical leadership must be leveraged across LDCs.

15. Cheap service access models need development with wider testing at scale.

16. Although long-term, incentive schemes show promise to reduce old-age security pressures.

17. Focus should expand beyond short-term fertility reduction to stabilizing growth.

18. Even if voluntary progress occurs, projections show mounting food scarcity risks.

19. Agricultural assistance enhancements are thus inextricably linked for sustainability.

20. Trade, production and reserve mechanisms must address instability threats.

21. Technologies preventing ecological strains and yield improvements are essential.

Excerpts:

• "What is unusual about population is that this foreign policy interest must have a time horizon far beyond that of most other objectives."

• "There are no 'quick-fixes' in this field."

• "We cannot simply buy population growth moderation for nearly 4 billion people 'on the cheap'."

• "A fundamental element in any overall strategy to deal with the population problem is obtaining the support and commitment of key leaders in the developing countries."

• "This school of thought believes the following types of questions need to be addressed..." [Questions on mandatory measures feasibility]

• "Even if efforts are made to provide educational opportunities for most of the school age population, low levels of development and restricted employment opportunities for academically educated youth lead to high dropout rates and non-attendance..."

• "Currently, efforts to develop low-cost health and family planning services for neglected populations in the LDC's are impeded because of the lack of international commitment and resources to the health side."

• "The U.S. should encourage heightened international interest in and commitment of resources to developing delivery mechanisms for providing integrated health and family planning services to neglected populations at costs which host countries can support within a reasonable period of time."

Section III: International Organizations and Other Multilateral Population Programs

[Not summarized]

International Organizations and other Multilateral Population Programs

A. UN Organization and Specialized Agencies Discussion

In the mid-sixties the UN member countries slowly began to agree on a greater involvement of the United Nations in population matters. In 1967 the Secretary-General created a Trust Fund to finance work in the population field. In 1969 the Fund was renamed the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) and placed under the overall supervision of the United Nations Development Program. During this period, also, the mandates of the Specialized Agencies were modified to permit greater involvement by these agencies in population activities.

UNFPA's role was clarified by an ECOSOC resolution in 1973:         (a) to build up the knowledge and capacity to respond to the needs in the population and family planning fields; (b) to promote awareness in both developed and developing countries of the social, economic, and environmental implications of population problems; (c) to extend assistance to developing countries; and (d) to promote population programs and to coordinate projects supported by the UNFPA.

Most of the projects financed by UNFPA are implemented with the assistance

of organizations of the United Nations system, including the regional Economic Commission, United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), International Labour Organization (ILO), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the World Health Organization (WHO). Collaborative arrangements have been made with the International Development Association (IDA), an affiliate of the World Bank, and with the World Food Programme.

Increasingly the UNFPA is moving toward comprehensive country programs negotiated directly with governments. This permits the governments to select the implementing (executing) agency which may be a member of the UN system or a non-government organization or company. With the development of the country program approach it is planned to level off UNFPA funding to the specialized agencies.

UNFPA has received $122 million in voluntary contributions from 65 governments, of which $42 million was raised in 1973. The Work Plan of UNFPA for 1974-77 sets a $280 million goal for fund-raising, as follows:

1974 - $54 million

1975 - $64 million

1976 - $76 million

1977 - $86 million

Through 1971 the U.S. had contributed approximately half of all the funds contributed to UNFPA. In 1972 we reduced our matching contribution to 48 percent of other donations, and for 1973 we further reduced our contribution to 45%. In 1973 requests for UNFPA assistance had begun to exceed available resources. This trend has accelerated and demand for UNFPA resources is now strongly outrunning supply. Documented need for UNFPA assistance during the years 1974-77 is $350 million, but because the UNFPA could anticipate that only $280 million will be available it has been necessary to phase the balance to at least 1978.

Recommendations:

The U.S. should continue its support of multilateral efforts in the population field by:

a) increasing, subject to congressional appropriation action, the absolute contribution

to the UNFPA in light of 1) mounting demands for UNFPA Assistance, 2) improving UNFPA capacity to administer projects, 3) the extent to which UNFPA funding aims at U.S. objectives and will substitute for U.S. funding, 4) the prospect that without increased U.S. contributions the UNFPA will be unable to raise sufficient funds for its budget in 1975 and beyond;

b) initiating or participating in an effort to increase the resources from other donors made available to international agencies that can work effectively in the population area as both to increase overall population efforts and, in the UNFPA, to further reduce the U.S. percentage share of total contributions; and

c) supporting the coordinating role which UNFPA plays among donor and recipient countries, and among UN and other organizations in the population field, including the World Bank.

B. Encouraging Private Organizations

Discussion

The cooperation of private organizations and groups on a national, regional and

world-wide level is essential to the success of a comprehensive population strategy. These groups provide important intellectual contributions and policy support, as well as the delivery of family planning and health services and information. In some countries, the private and voluntary organizations are the only means of providing family planning services and materials.

Recommendations:

AID should continue to provide support to those private U.S. and international organizations whose work contributes to reducing rapid population growth, and to develop with them, where appropriate, geographic and functional divisions of labor in population assistance.

Section IV: Provision and Development of Family Planning Services, Information and Technology

The section discusses recommendations to improve existing contraceptive techniques and develop new ones, as well as expand low-cost delivery mechanisms, to enhance fertility control availability. It advocates increased investment in biomedical research to create simpler, safer, and more acceptable birth control options suitable for developing countries. Simultaneously it argues for integrated approaches that incorporate family planning with health/nutrition services to leverage existing infrastructure and increase accessibility for the 85-90% unreached populations. Areas like commercial distribution channels, contraceptive production/procurement capacities, and mass media utilization are highlighted for cost-effective reach expansion. It also reviews relevant legislation concerning use of US foreign aid funding with regard to abortion. Overall it pushes for accelerated efforts across technological innovation, system delivery, partnerships, and communications to enable wider voluntary fertility regulation by individuals and couples across the developing world.

Key takeaways:

1. Improved contraceptive technology and choice is essential to meet varied user needs and preferences.

2. Both short-term refinement and long-term breakthroughs deserve high research priority and budgets.

3. USAID should collaborate with other agencies and international bodies on this.

4. Simultaneously, accessible delivery mechanisms for the unreached 85% majority are pivotal.

5. Integrating family planning into multi-purpose health/nutrition infrastructures is recommended.

6. This suits limited LDC budgets, increases acceptability, and demonstrates family welfare concern.

7. Commercial distribution channels can also provide low-cost access with minimal infrastructure.

8. LDCs need aid initially but must eventually take financial and managerial responsibility.

9. Indigenous personnel and structures should be utilized for sustainable community traction.

10. Contraceptive production and procurement capacities within LDCs need cultivation.

11. Mass media has unrealized potential for national communication and motivation.

12. New broadcast satellite technology offers promising rural education channels.

13. However software and content creation is lagging; costs are very high currently.

14. Conventional radio/print media remain most prudent for family planning promotion.

15. USAID cannot directly fund abortion under current legislation, only related research.

16. This prevents menstrual regulation kit promotion, narrowing technology options.

17. Arguments highlight abortion’s ubiquity and safety challenges, limiting such research.

18. Integrated services improve efficiency and acceptability despite infrastructure gaps.

19. Commercial distribution innovations should be pursued and replicated if successful.

20. Both supply and demand side constraints need addressal for cultural traction.

21. Even basic motivations around ideal family size lack required understanding.

Excerpts:

• "It is essential to provide safe and effective techniques for controlling fertility."

• "The effort to reduce population growth requires a variety of birth control methods which are safe, effective, inexpensive and attractive to both men and women."

• "A great deal of effort and money will be necessary to improve fertility control methods."

• "If efforts to reduce rapid population growth are to be successful it is essential that the neglected 85- 90% of LDC populations have access to convenient, reliable family planning services."

• "Integrated basic education (including applied literacy) and family planning programs should be developed whenever they appear to be effective, of high priority, and acceptable to the individual country."

• "It would be unwise to restrict abortion research for the following reasons..."

• "While dramatic limitations in the availability of any family planning related message are most severe in rural areas of developing countries, even more serious gaps exist in the understanding of the implicit incentives in the system for large families and the potential of the informational message to alter those conditions."

• "AID believes that the best bet in media strategy is to encourage intensive use of media already available, or available at relatively low cost."

Section V: Action to Develop Worldwide Political and Popular Commitment to Population Stability

[Not summarized]

Action to Develop World-Wide Political and Popular Commitment to Population Stability

Discussion:

A far larger, high-level effort is needed to develop a greater commitment of leaders of both developed and developing countries to undertake efforts, commensurate with the need, to bring population growth under control.

In the United States, we do not yet have a domestic population policy despite widespread recognition that we should -- supported by the recommendations of the remarkable Report of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future.

Although world population growth is widely recognized within the Government

as a current danger of the highest magnitude calling for urgent measures, it does not rank high on the agendas of conversations with leaders of other nations.

Nevertheless, the United States Government and private organizations give more attention to the subject than any donor countries except, perhaps, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. France makes no meaningful contribution either financially or verbally. The USSR no longer opposes efforts of U.S. agencies but gives no support.

In the LDCs, although 31 countries, including China, have national population growth control programs and 16 more include family planning in their national health services ── at least in some degree -- the commitment by the leadership in some of these countries is neither high nor wide. These programs will have only modest success until there is much stronger and wider acceptance of their real importance by leadership groups. Such acceptance and support will be essential to assure that the population information, education and service programs have vital moral backing, administrative capacity, technical skills and government financing.

Recommendations:

1. Executive Branch

a. The President and the Secretary of State should make a point of discussing our national concern about world population growth in meetings with national leaders where it would be relevant.

b. The Executive Branch should give special attention to briefing the Congress on population matters to stimulate support and leadership which the Congress has exercised in the past. A program for this purpose should be developed by S/PM with H and AID.

2. World Population Conference

a. In addition to the specific recommendations for action listed in the preceding sections, U.S. agencies should use the prestige of the World Population Plan of Action to advance all of the relevant action recommendations made by it in order to generate more effective programs for population growth limitation. AID should coordinate closely with the UNFPA in trying to expand resources for population assistance programs, especially from non-OECD, non-traditional donors.

The U.S. should continue to play a leading role in ECOSOC and General Assembly discussions and review of the WPPA.

3. Department of State

a. The State Department should urge the establishment at U.N. headquarters of a high level seminar for LDC cabinet and high level officials and non-governmental leaders of comparable responsibility for indoctrination in population matters. They should have the opportunity in this seminar to meet the senior officials of U.N. agencies and leading population experts from a variety of countries.

b. The State Department should also encourage organization of a UNFPA policy staff to consult with leaders in population programs of developing countries and other experts in population matters to evaluate programs and consider actions needed to improve them.

c. A senior officer, preferably with ambassadorial experience, should be assigned in each regional bureau dealing with LDCs or in State's Population Office to give full-time attention to the development of commitment by LDC leaders to population growth reduction.

d. A senior officer should be assigned to the Bureau of International Organization Affairs to follow and press action by the Specialized Agencies of the U.N. in population matters in developing countries.

e. Part of the present temporary staffing of S/PM for the purposes of the World Population Year and the World Population Conference should be continued on a permanent basis to take advantage of momentum gained by the Year and Conference.

Alternate View on 3.c.

b. The Department should expand its efforts to help Ambassadorial and other high-ranking

U.S.G. personnel understand the consequences of rapid population growth and the remedial measures possible.

c. The Department would also give increased attention to developing a commitment to population growth reduction on the part of LDC leaders.

d. Adequate manpower should be provided inS/PM and other parts of the Department as appropriate to implement these expanded efforts.

4. A I D. should expand its programs to increase the understanding of LDC leaders regarding the consequences of rapid population growth and their commitment to undertaking remedial actions. This should include necessary actions for collecting and analyzing adequate and reliable demographic data to be used in promoting awareness of the problem and in formulating appropriate policies and programs.

5. USIA. As a major part of U.S. information policy, the improving but still limited programs of USIA to convey information on population matters should be strengthened to a level commensurate with the importance of the subject.

(END OF NSSM 200)

National Security Council Memorandum (NSSM) 314

November 26, 1975

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FREE Book Summary: The Deep Hot Biosphere by Thomas Gold (Abiogenic Oil)

FREE Book Summary: The Peanut Allergy Epidemic by Heather Fraser

FREE eBook: What is a woman? - “We don’t know yet.”

FREE eBook: The Climate™

FREE eBook: A letter to my two adult kids - Vaccines and the free spike protein