Negative Interest Rates

And the magic trick of making something “endemic”

I’m sitting at my computer the other day, and I get some industry newsletter email in my inbox. I usually don’t read them, but this one had charts, so I did a quick scroll down and bumped into this:

I stared and stared at this chart until I understood some of what it was trying to tell me.

The sharpest point of the jagged chart is late 2019 early 2020.

So apparently at one point “30% of global fixed income” veered into negative interest rate territory.

Just in case you don’t understand what that means, the basic idea is that someone is “paying YOU” to borrow their money.

So, if you were to go to the bank to get a mortgage, it would be the bank paying you a monthly amount for taking out the mortgage.

Is your head spinning?

Don’t worry, you are not alone…it’s Alice in Wonderland material.

What would negative interest rates mean for mortgages and savings? | Interest rates | The Guardian

Why Sweden ditched its negative rate experiment  | Financial Times (ft.com)

Swiss National Bank exits negative rates era with 0.75% hike | Reuters

Let’s ponder this for a moment.

When you rent a property, the rent you pay forms the basis of the return of the landlord (not considering capital gains) and that return factors in the “risk” to the landlord of you having control of his asset. So, the return is meant to reflect the risk.

The same case can be made for dividends paid to investors in shares of companies.

The interest you pay to the bank, also factors in the risk you pose to the banks capital. The bank thinks that the money is safer with them than with you, but if they give you their money (so you can buy a house) then you need to compensate them for that risk, which is fair enough.

If the bank is paying you, to take their money, that means the system thinks the money is safer in your hands than theirs. Ponder on that for a while.

I distinctly remember when I started to pay attention to negative interest rates.

I sent an email to a work friend on 18 November 2019 saying:

The best thing I have seen on the subject so far…

From one of the smartest guys around, who says he has no idea what it means!!

I was referring to an article by Howard Marks on the subject of negative interest rates titled Mysterious, written in Oct 2019, which oddly is no longer in his archive of articles.

It’s clear from the essay that neither Howard nor anybody else knows how the world financial system can work when interest rates go the other way.

The other day, my colleague Ian Schapiro, the leader of Oaktree’s Power Opportunities and Infrastructure groups, suggested I write a memo about negative interest rates. My reaction was immediate and unequivocal: “I can’t. I don’t know anything about them.” And then I realized that’s the point. No one does.

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And that brings us to the subject of negative interest rates. I find them no less mysterious. The fact that we know what they are – as we do with inflation and deflation – doesn’t alter the fact that we  don’t know for sure why negative rates are prevalent today, how long they’ll continue in force, what might cause them to turn positive, what their consequences are, or whether they’ll reach the U.S.

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The world had changed. Up until the Global Financial Crisis, we could store money with the government and be well paid to do so. But now my reaction was, “given the level of fear in the financial world, maybe one of these days people will end up paying to store their money safely.”

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At minimum, negative rates mean there’s increased uncertainty, and thus we have to proceed with more trepidation. Whatever we knew in the past about how things worked, I think we know less when rates are negative.

I’d encourage you to read the whole article. It’s an important admission from an insider that the system is broken and cannot work when rates go in the wrong direction.

There is no book on it, there is no lecture at university on it, there is no expert on it.

Nobody knows what to do with negative interest rates. Full stop.

Which brings us back to the Schroders chart above, and how “miraculously” the global problem of negative interest rates has just gone away.

Not only has it gone away, but interest rates have been increased across the board. This is significant because if gives bankers the “tool” that they had lost, which is the ability to “stimulate” the economy through rate “reductions”. You cannot reduce something below zero, because it blows up the system.

I’ve been thinking about this stuff since I published:

Repocalypse - Lies are Unbekoming (substack.com)

Which makes the “timing” connection between the start of the GMC and the point at which the repo market locked up. That thesis is silent on negative interest rates, but the two subjects are connected. They both are symptoms of a system on the verge of collapse.

Which brings us back to this issue of “timing”.

How can you “time” a pandemic?

Well, you certainly cannot do it by hoping that a bat and pangolin get to know each other, at just the right time.

And you certainly cannot do it by hoping a lazy bio-weapons lab employee forgets to wash her hands at the end of her shift, at just the right moment, and “leaks” a Frankenstein bug into the world.

So, how?

Here is a rewrite of a comment I made to a recent question on how it might be done.

Diamond Princess - Lies are Unbekoming (substack.com)

(BTW, I welcome any evidence that falsifies any aspect of this thesis…I try to hold my ideas lightly as I fumble around with all of this)

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I'll try to outline some of the bouncing balls here.

There was either an infectious agent or not. I'm on the Yes side.

People got ill with something, and it was something different.

Here in Australia my son went up to Byron Bay for a few days holiday with 16 other healthy 20+ year old young men, and they ALL go ill, during a hot Australian summer!

And when they did the tests, they ALL pinged positive. When he can home, we got it also, with the same test results. I was left with a cough for 6 weeks I couldn’t shake.

That’s just one of hundreds of anecdotes, and let’s not forget the whole loss of taste and smell thingy.

If the claim is, that all of that was induced psychologically, from pandemic porn…I’m not buying it.

So, I’m in the camp that there was something doing the rounds.

It was either a virus or something else. I'm on the something else side.

Go to minute 4.00 of Couey’s latest National Immunomythology Update and watch the well spoken bald guy for a few minutes.

National Immunomythology Update -- Gigaohm Biological

That’s Dr James Giordano - TARGETED JUSTICE

Which brings us to infectious clones, as per what I have written about here with Couey before.

Which leave us with a manufactured clone.

Which brings us to leaked or released.

I'm obviously on the released side. Too much has happened to think this was some silly accident.

A leaked virus, even a Frankenstein virus, would simply fizzle out after doing some damage, because of natural immunity, it couldn't spread across the world. Pandemics as they have sold them to us cannot happen, but the fear of them is necessary to build a pandemic preparedness industrial complex complete with vaccine factories all over the place.

Moderna to build mRNA vaccine manufacturing facility in Australia | Global Australia

Queensland and Sanofi to establish global vaccine hub - Ministerial Media Statements

So, you land on released.

Where?

Many places, Wuhan, Iran, Italy...and in my view Australia, parts of the US, and any number of other places.

You can aerosolize these things and spray them (refer to Giordano).

Then you are left with the question of what made the PCRs ping?

And why were there so many "asymptomatic" pings?

If you have 10+ years to plan something like this, and there is plenty of evidence for that, then one way to do it is to create a very weak infectious clone, something that if scrutinized will show up as "novel" but that is virtually indistinguishable from a cold and flu and slowly release it around the world over a number of years and make it "endemic".

Because nobody is testing for it, you wouldn't know it's there.

Once it's endemic you are ready to pull the trigger whenever you want or need to.

And the “need” question is connected to the financial discussion above. The system absolutely, definitely, NEEDED a reset. It was time.

So, when you are ready, you do a big release in several locations, which will create some disease and death but plenty of fear and propaganda. Then you roll out your special “primed” PCRs and they start pinging all over the world.

And you build a story around the dangers of "asymptomatic" spread which the Diamond Princess helped with.

So, in short, it's a giant magic trick that definitely looks like the woman has been cut in half, but in fact there is plenty of elaborate planning and tech that means she isn't.

The trick only works if you can make the thing that pings the PCRs endemic.

And you can only make it endemic, if it has a very low infection fatality rate, similar to the flu with symptoms virtually indistinguishable from the flu.

Which is why the low IFR is a feature not a bug. It’s what makes it invisible. You can only load the gun if nobody notices.

Then you get to pull the trigger whenever the time is right.

And the end of 2019 was the right time.

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