How deadly is COVID?: 4 important Insights
The Big Lie: Ioannidis, IFR, Smoking and Absolute Risk
I listened to this on the way in to work today, then wrote a friend the following:
Listened to this on the way in.
1. John Ioannidis
John Ioannidis is a giant in the field, he reminds me of Walter Williams standing up against 650 economists in 2007. John stood up very early against the madness. Plenty of attempted hit jobs on him online.
Anyway, considering we have recently talked about the COVID IFR (Infection fatality rate), listen to him at min. 8:20 (for about 1.5 minutes).
His calculation of the IFR about 1 year ago was 0.23% and today its 0.15%, the same number I got to in my letter using back of the envelope maths. The arguments for discounts to the IFR still stand obviously.
Ivor Cummins posted it yesterday, not sure when John did the presentation but I think its very recent. The whole thing is only 30 mins and he touches on many important points that you will not hear in any Public Square media.
One of the very interesting points that he makes, that I hadn’t thought about before was that of smoking, at around 21:30 for about 1 minute. He is making the same point I made about “old age”, what really killed them? The virus or the frailty of old age.
He makes the point that 50% of COVID deaths are due to underlying smoking related conditions. So not just any co-morbidity, but smoking created co-morbidities. So, did the virus kill them or was it a smoking death? Good point.
2. Ivor Cummins
Also, while we are at it, Ivor Cummins is one of the early and consistent public fighters, and has been right on pretty much everything from the start. He was very good at collecting data and seeing fact patterns.
For example, he produced this a few days ago about the Delta strain bullshit. Watch this and then watch the news and you have to decide who is lying.
3. IFR - The Big Lie
One last thing on the IFR, I have been thinking about this recently after I wrote the letter to the kids and we had our emails on it. I was of the view that the PCR Test lie was the biggest lie that all the other lies fed off, but I have rethought that. I think the biggest lie in the “narrative complex” is that of the IFR vs CFR (Case fatality rate).
It goes to the heart of the question:
How scary is this thing?
How deadly is this virus?
If the answer is “very” then most of the public narratives stack up (sort of, in a fast thinking type of way), but if the answer is “not very, its quite mild actually” then none of the narratives stack up (even with fast thinking).
So…you have an IFR of 0.1%, that everyone in the “business” knows, the CMOs know it, the Premiers know it, the medical and health journalists know it, the AMA know it etc etc, yet nobody mentions it…that’s a lie of omission…and it’s the biggest lie.
Instead, everyone talks about Cases and Deaths, publishing the numbers daily and sometimes even doing the division for the public to show that 2% or 3% of people die from this thing…this lie is the source of the fear, it is the heart of the beast. Everything else follows either to enable it (PCR tests) or take advantage of it (vaccination).
There is a lot more that I want to write about on the IFR and at some point I will have to write an article on it.
This from our lovely Australian Federal Government, its such great propaganda that feeds off people’s numerical illiteracy (we are innumerate) and poor thinking skills.
I could probably write a whole eBook on all the different lies in this table (actually I might do that at some point) but let’s assume every number on this table is true and mean what the words imply that they mean.
Anyone who then asks themselves how deadly is this thing, will get the calculator out and divide 910/30,562 and viola gets 2.9%.
So, did the government outright say that the IFR was 2.9%? No. They presented 2 numbers, that allowed people to calculate the CFR, but THINK it is the IFR.
Did they give me sufficient rope to hang myself. Yes.
And I hung myself in the best way possible because I “figured it out for myself”, so I have buy in, “showing rather than telling” being used beautifully. Which is why that muppet was telling my wife the other day at some fund raiser, chest proud, that it kills 3% of people…well according to this table, he is right…and he figured it out all by himself and wants to share his discovery with anyone that will listen…sigh…anyway, she politely walked away.
While still al this table, if we divide 30,562/20,534,375 we get…0.1%…As Thomas Sowell says: Compared to what? and Show me the evidence!
So, why is 0.1% a problem number, because the False Positive Rate (on the boxes that these tests come in!!) has a range of 0.5% - 1.5%, so any number that is within that range or below either goes straight to the bin or needs double testing (run the test twice on the same sample to get rid of the false positive risk) to be confirmed (to my knowledge, we don’t do that in Oz, I certainly haven’t been able to get confirmation).
4. Absolute Risk
Another problem with 0.1% is it goes to the heart of Prevalence (something nobody understands, let alone talks about). How prevalent is the virus in the community? Well, that number says 1 person per 1,000. Well if you think about that number, even for a little bit, you realise that it is the pathway to understanding “How likely am I to catch it?”…well, at least 1:1,000 in Australia.
Which if you think about it a bit deeper still, you realise that the IFR number I have been banging on about, is also bullshit (in a way) because the IFR number of 0.1% suggests that it will kill 1:1,000…but that is NOT true…it will kill 1:1,000 of people that CATCH it, but first they have to catch the bloody thing, and as we now know, the risk of that, based on prevalence, is also 1:1,000…which brings us to Absolute Risk…risk of first catching and risk of then dying…which explains why when you run the risk calculator in my letter (that draws its data from the UK!!!! One of the highest Prevalence communities in the world) you end up with Absolute Risk of 1:300,000 or 1:1,000,000.
It is absolutely fair to say, that in Oz, the risk of dying from COVID (Absolute Risk) is 1:1,000,000…across the whole population…less still for the “young” sub 70 and higher for the 70+
Anyway, we have been lied to, society has been lied to, and because society is innumerate (something you and I know only too well) and because people don’t know how to think and so resort to Fast Thinking…society has been led down the garden path to the conclusion that this think kills 3% of people.
So, if that muppet at the fundraiser kept going with his calculator, and my wife had hung around to listen, he would have said that 3% of 25m people (Australian population) is 750,000 dead Australians…that is why we need to do lockdowns, masks, vaccinate everybody and all the other BS we have had to do…and his “maths” would be “right” the same way that the blind Indian describing the elephant’s ear…he was also “right”.
BTW, the official government forecast of death, back in April 2020 was 14,000 (if we don’t do anything), which is also bullshit in so many ways, but whatever…I guess they could say that “we saved 13,000” lives so far because of all the counter measures (average age of person “saved” would be higher than life expectancy).
Anyway, this is what mass psychosis looks like…
Ok, I am going to go back to doing some work now…